Ft Environmental act Statement On Agreement Between United States and Canada East Coast Fishery Resources % APRIL 1980 -c ■u a o / c O c C CO ^j £0 OJ to ■u $ QJ to CO W H I DOCUMENT COLLECTION DEPARTMENT OF STATE DRAFT ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT ON THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA ON EAST COAST FISHERY RESOURCES APRIL 1980 ! B m ^^^^ .r- o ^^= tr ' ^ - CD Cover Sheet (a) Responsible agencies: U.S. Department of State (lead) and U.S. Department of Commerce. (b) Proposed action: Ratification and implementation of the Agreement Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of Canada on East Coast Fishery Resources. This action will impact the U.S. fishery conservation zone in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank area. (c) For further information contact: Mr. William H. Mansfield, III Office of Environment & Health Room 7820 Department of State Washington, D.C. 20520 (202)632-9266 (d) Statement type: Draft Environmental Impact Statement. (e) Abstract: This statement evaluates the environmental impact of ratifying and implementing the Agreement Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of Canada on East Coast Fishery Resources. The Agreement establishes a management framework that has the potential to assure the long- term productivity of the fishery resources of the Georges Bank - Gulf of Maine area with little or no adverse economic impact to the users of the resource. (f) Dates: Comments must be received by . XI Summary This statement analyzes the environmental impact of ratifying and implementing the Agreement between the Govern- ment of the United States of America and the Government of Canada on East Coast Fishery Resources, signed March 29, 1979. This bilateral fisheries agreement creates a frame- work that would enable the countries to coordinate fishery management decisions for stocks of mutual interest. The Agreement itself makes few management decisions regarding these resources. It requires that total allowable catches (TAC's) be established annually based on the best scienti- fic information available. It vests the United States, Canada, or both countries with exclusive or primary management responsibility for each stock covered. It also establishes the shares of the TAC's to be caught by each country and provides for access by fishermen of each country to the fishery zone of the other, enabling fishermen of both to continue traditional fisheries. Beyond these basic provisions, the Agreement leaves the development of specific management programs to the country with exclusive or primary management responsibility or to both countries in the case of four stocks. These programs would be developed in accordance with the Agree- ment's management principles which are patterned on the Ill national standards for fishery management contained in the Fishery Conse*" vation and Management Act of 1976 (FCMA). In the case of stocks managed primarily by one country and those managed jointly, the Agreement provides for dispute resolution to guard against the possibility that deadlock may leave the stocks unprotected. The need for the proposed action stems from the decision by both countries in 1976 to extend their jurisdiction over fisheries to 200 miles and to undertake national programs of fishery management within these extended areas. Because a number of important fish stocks migrate between areas they can be affected by fishing pressure applied in either country's zone. For this reason, U.S. and Canadian authorities perceived the need to coordinate fishery management decisions for such stocks. Furthermore, the limits of the extended zones claimed by the United States and Canada overlap in four areas. The most pronounced overlap occurs in the Atlantic on the northeastern third of Georges Bank, one of the world's richest fishing grounds and traditionally one of significant importance to U.S. fishermen. In the absence of an established maritime boundary, fish stocks in this area are particularly prone to the risks of competitive overfishing . IV The United States and Canada began discussions in 1976 aimed at creating a framework for coordinated fishery management. In August 1977 both governments appointed special negotiators. Ey October 1977 the coun- tries had agreed on the basic elements and principles of such a framework. On March 29, 1979, the United States and Canada signed the agreement subsequently negotiated. While negotiations were underway, both governments entered into a reciprocal fishery agreement for 1977 that continued traditional fisheries at recent levels. By the end of that year, when it became clear that more time would be needed to work out the long term arrangements, both governments agreed to extend the 1977 agreement with minor modifications for another year. In June 1978, however, Canada announced that it would not give effect to the 1978 interim agreement and suspended traditional U.S. fisheries in its undisputed fishery zone. The United States took reciprocal action. Since that time, fishermen of each country have been excluded from the undisputed zone of the other, although fishermen of both continue to operate in the disputed area on Georges Bank subject only to their respective domestic regulations. The Agreement would reduce current risks of competi- tive overfishing of stocks in the Georges Bank disputed zone and of stocks that range between the undisputed zones of the United States and" Canada by assuring that the fishing activity of both countries for stocks to which both have access would be taken into account in managing these resources . Management Framework The Agreement establishes a bilateral East Coast Fisheries Commission to serve as a forum for coordinating fishery management decisions. Stocks are divided into three categories that provide for graduated degrees of interaction between the countries. Where possible, to facilitate management and to avoid the potential for disagreement over conservation goals, stocks would be managed exclusively or primarily by one country or the other. Thus, stocks listed in Category C would be managed exclusively by the United States or Canada The managing country would be required only to consult with the other before implementing management measures. Stocks listed in Category B would be managed primarily by one country or the other. The country with primary management responsibility would d'evelop management measures for these stocks that would enter into force regardless of an objec- tion by the other country. For them to be modified, the VI other country would have to demonstrate that they are "clearly inconsistent" with the Agreement's broad manage- ment principles. This requirement thus builds in a pre- ference in favor of the measures developed by the country with primary management responsibility. For all or part of the management measures for four species, Category A procedures would apply. These involve the greatest degree of management cooperation between the two countries. Management measures under Category A would be developed jointly in the Commission. The Agreement also provides for conciliation and arbitration of disagreements over management measures for Category A and B stocks. This will assure that disagreement between the Parties will not result in deadlock and leave the stocks unprotected. As noted however, an objecting Party would have to meet a substantial burden of persuasion in seeking a modification of management measures developed by the country with pri- mary management responsibility for Category B stocks. The need for coordinated fishery management arose with extended jurisdiction and presumably will prevail indefinitely. For this reason, the Agreement undertaken with Canada has no termination provision. However, once the maritime boundary between the countries is delimited. Vll it may be desirable to modify the national percentage share entitlements initially agreed between the Parties. The Agreement recognizes this possibility and provides for periodic adjustments at ten-year intervals within certain maximum and minimum limits. In addition, the Agreement recognizes the need for flexibility in other areas, parti- cularly with respect to changes in the management cate- gories of the stocks covered, additions or deletions of stocks from the Annexes, variations in time limits and other procedural aspects involved in adopting management measures, and modifications in management strategy to foster innovative approaches to managing these resources and to allow the Parties to benefit from increased scienti- fic knowledge of the fisheries. The proposed action represents some departure from traditional bilateral fishery agreements with their limited management goals and limited contributions to conservation. It would establish a comprehensive system for conserving a broad range of fishery resources. It would have the flexibility necessary to evolve with increased scientific knowledge and developing theories of management. Above all, it would assure that pressure to maximize short term uses of fishery resources will not be allowed to threaten long term productivity. Vlll Issues to be Resolved Four alternatives to the Agreement are considered. These are (1) no Agreement, (2) settlement of the maritime boundary, only, (3) negotiation of a resource agreement after delimitation of the maritime boundary, and (4) nego- tiation of a less comprehensive resource agreement pending delimitation of a maritime boundary. Areas of Controversy The major controversies over the proposed action involve (1) the Agreement's lack of a termination provision, (2) certain percentage share entitlements, particularly the U.S. entitlement of the Georges Bank scallop stock, (3) the maximum and minimum limits within which entitlements may be adjusted at 10-year intervals, (4) the extent of Canada's role in managing stocks in waters claimed by the United States, and (5) Canada's 10-year entitlement to nine percent of the annual permissible commercial catch of Loligo squid in the U.S. zone versus 10-year U.S. entitlements to redfish in the Canadian zone. Major Conclusions Current risks of competitive overfishing are substan- tial for a number of important stocks in the Georges Bank disputed zone. These include cod, haddock, pollock, yellow- tail flounder, and scallops. If the United States and IX Canada do not act to protect these stocks, abundance is likely to decline over time causing significant economic dislocation for coastal communities in the United States which are dependent on them. In addition, the risks of competitive overfishing may also extend to other stocks to which both countries have access. The proposed action would reduce these risks by requiring that both countries agree to total annual harvests from these resources and by specifying what percentage of the total each country annually may take. It would also create a mechanism through which the United States and Canada may coordinate management policies and develop a cooperative relationship in the area of fisheries management Though such cooperation has occurred in the past in various international commissions and under certain bilateral agreements, extended jurisdiction now requires even closer cooperation over a broad range of fisheries management issues if stocks are to be conserved effectively. Moreover, the need for such a relationship is likely to become even more compelling as the fishing industries of both countries seek to realize the opportunities created for them by extended jurisdiction. Delimitation of the maritime boundary in the Georges Bank-Gulf of Maine area, although important to defining the precise areas of each country's extended zone, will not alone foster such a relationship. Were the issues addressed by the proposed action set aside until after delimitation of the boundary, both countries could face significant resource conservation problems during the interim period, and evolution of the needed cooperative relationship between them could be seriously retarded. With or without the proposed action, the United States and Canada will be required in future years to accept some restraints in the short term to assure long term resource productivity. The principal advantage of the proposed action is its assurance that both countries will agree to do so simultaneously so that short term sacrifices and long term benefits will be shared. If undertaken in a timely manner, both countries may avoid the prospect of resource depletion and consequent economic dislocation that currently exists in several important fisheries. XI Table of Contents Page Cover Sheet i Summary ii Table of Contents xi List of Appendices xii List of Figures xiv List of Tables xv I. Purpose and Meed 1 A. Historical Background 1 B. Concepts Underlying the Proposed Action 7 II. Alternatives Including the Proposed Action 9 A. Proposed Federal Action 9 1. Annexes to the Agreement 9 a. Category A Management 10 b. Category B Management 12 c. Category C Management 20 2. East Coast Fisheries Commission 24 3. Management Principles 31 4. Dispute Settlement Mechanisms 34 5. Adjustment Provisions 36 6. Other Provisions 38 a. Limited Access 33 b. Scientific Cooperation 38 c. Reports of Catch and Location Data.... 39 d. Confidentiality of Statistics 39 e. Right to be Considered for Allocation of Surplus Fish 39 f. Fishing within Twelve Miles of the Coast 40 g. Fishing by Vessels of Third Party Countries 40 h. Recreational Fishing 41 i. Herring Transfers 41 j. Observers 41 k . Arrangements in Boundary Region 42 1. Port Access 42 Xll Page B. Alternatives to the Proposed Action 43 1 . No Agreement 43 2. Settlement of the I^^aritime Boundary, Only 45 3. Negotiate a Resource Agreement After Delimitation of the Maritime Boundary. . . 46 4. Negotiation of a Less Comprehensive Resource Agreement Pending Delimitation of the Maritime Boundary 49 III, Affected Environment . . . . ' 50 A. The Physical and Biological Environment. ... 50 B. Areas of Special Biological Importance .... 54 C. Human Environment 72 IV. Environmental Consequences .74 A. Impact of the Proposed Action 74 1. Physical Environment 74 2. Biological Environment ... 77 3. Human Environment 89 a. Introduction 89 b. Short-Term Impacts 94 c. Long-Term Impacts 112 B. Environmental Consequences of Alternatives to the Proposed Action 130 1. No Agreement 130 2. Settlement of the Maritime Boundary, Only 138 3. Negotiate a Resource Agreement Subsequent to Delim.itation of a Maritime Boundary 139 4. Negotiate a Less Comprehensive Resource Agreement Pending Delimita- tion of a Maritime Boundary , .145 V. Bibliography 148 VI. List of Preparers 154 VII. List of Reviewers 156 VIII. Appendices Separate Volume Attached Xlll List of Appendices I. Agreement between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of Canada on East Coast Fishery Resources II. Brief Biological Description of Species in Annexes to the Agreement III. Affected Environment IV. Profiles of Recent Commercial Fisheries by State and Selected Ports XV List of Figures Page Figure 1 - Gulf of Maine-Georges Bank Region; United States and Canadian Claim Lines and ICNAF Subareas and Divisions 3 Figure 2 - Category "A" and "B" Management Decision Paths 13 Figure 3 - Northwest Atlantic Area Map. 51 Figure 4 - Gulf of Maine-Georges Bank Region Surface Currents Within Slope Water and Coastal Water Masses 53 Figure 5 - Distributional Charts of Commercially- Important Species 57 a. Argentine 57 b. Cod 58 c. Cusk 59 d. Haddock 60 e. Red Hake 61 f. Silver Hake 62 g. White Hake 63 h. Herring 64 i. Lobster 65 j . Mackerel 66 k. Pollock 67 1. Redfish 68 m. Scallops 69 n. Loligo squid 70 o. Illex squid 71 Figure 6 - U.S. Sea Scallop Catch, Effort and Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) , Subdivision 5Ze, . . .106 Figure 7 - Landings of Agreement Species Compared with Total Landings by State (Maine-Virginia) Ill Figure 8 - Potential Long-Term Increase (or Decrease) in Average Annual Harvest 122 Figure 9 - Allocation of Primary Management Authority by Value of Potential Harvest 125 Figure 10 - Distribution of the Value of Potential Annual Long-Term Catch Shares 128 XIV List of Tables Page Table I Principal Spawning Areas and Times of Marine Fishes, Cape Sable to Cape Hatteras . 55-56 Table II Provisional Estimate of Potential Long Term Sustainable Average Annual Catch Levels from Selected Stocks (Assuming Rebuilding and Conservation of Stocks) . . . 91-93 Table III Comparison of Potential Catch with 1978 Total Catch and U.S. Entitlement at 1978 Total Catch Level with 1978 Actual U.S. Catch for Agreement Stocks 97-98 Table IV Illustration of Possible Value of the United States and Canada of Their Respective Shares of Stocks Covered by the Agreement in Terms of Potential Annual Average Long-Term Sustainable Catch Levels and 1978 Ex-Vessel Values 117-120 - 1 - I. PURPOSE AND NEED This statement analyzes the environmental impact of ratifying and implementing the Agreement Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of Canada on East Coast Fishery Resources, signed on March 29, 1979 (Appenaix I). This bilateral fisheries agreement with Canada provides for (1) the conservation and management of east coast fishery resources of concern to the U.S. and Canada and (2) reciprocal fishing access. A joint East Coast Fisheries Commission to provide for cooperative management of fish stocks is also established. A. Historical Background The United States has participated in the multilateral management of Northwest Atlantic fish resources since 1949, when it became a party to the International Convention for the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries (ICNAF). From 1950 until 1977, ICNAF and various bilateral agreements with nations fishing off the east coast of the U.S. served as the vehicles by which the United States sought to study, manage and conserve Northwest Atlantic fisheries. These agreements proved inadequate, particularly in light of the trend toward extended coastal state jurisdiction over fishery resources. In 1976, Congress enacted the Fishery Conservation and Management Act (the FCMA) extending exclusive U.S. fishery management jurisdiction from 12 to 200 miles effective March 1, 1977. - 2 - The FCMA established a national program of management designed to prevent overfishing and promote the rebuilding of stocks, while furthering the realization of utilization of the full potential of the nation's fishery resources. The FCMA called for the negotiation of fishery agreements with countries wishing to fish off our coasts and for the negotiation of agreements establishing maritime boundaries with countries whose fishery zones are opposite or adjacent to our own. Also in 1976, the Canadian Government announced exten- sion of its fisheries jurisdiction to 200 miles effective January 1, 1977. In the Gulf of Maine area, outside the Strait of Juan de Fuca, at the Dixon Entrance and in the Beaufort Sea the published limits of U.S. and Canadian fisheries jurisdiction overlapped. This overlap was most pronounced on the northeast third of Georges Bank, one of the world's richest fishing grounds, and traditionally of major impor- tance to U.S. fishermen (figure 1). In view of these overlapping claims, both governments initiated discussions in late 1976 in an effort to resolve differences. Of more immediate concern, however, was the management of fishery resources in the boundary region pending delimitation of the boundary. Absent some agree- ment, both governments recognized that these resources - 3 - Automaied base produced by the Office of The Geograpfler, US Oepanmeni oi S;aie, Figure 1. Gulf of Maine - Georges Bank Region: United States and Canadian Boundary Claims. - 4 - could be subject to uncoordinated manageraent raeasures, and both feared that such measures could lead to competition for fishery resources in the boundary region which might adversely affect conservation efforts. In addition, both governments recognized that, to the extent fishery resources of the boundary region are also present in areas where their respec- tive exclusive fishery management jurisdiction is not disputed, management measures in such areas might easily be thwarted by uncoordinated management measures in the boundary region. Thus, for 1977, the United States and Canada concluded a reciprocal fisheries agreement which allowed fishermen of each country to continue traditional fisheries in the zone of the other and which limited to recent levels the catches the areas of undisputed jurisdiction. In August 1977, President Carter and Prime Minister Trudeau appointed special representatives with instructions to negotiate an overall settlement by the end of 1977. Thereafter, Ambassadors Lloyd N. Cutler for the United ' States and Marcel Cadieux for Canada assumed direction of the negotiations. In October 1977 the special representatives submitted to their governments agreed principles for a long term comprehensive agreement on fisheries. These principles included (1) the establishment of a joint fisheries com- mission, (2) the division of stocks into three categories - 5 - to provide for graduated degrees of coordinated inanaqement action, and (3) the creation of dispute settlement mechanisms, including the appointment of an impartial arbitrator. As the negotiations progressed it became apparent that a comprehensive agreement could not be concluded prior to the 1978 fishing season. A second one-year interim fisheries agreement was negotiated and signed. Although the United States approved, and urged Canada to implement, the 1978 agreement, it was never brought into force due to differing interpretations of certain provisions. Reciprocal fishing was informally permitted until June, 1978. Thereafter, each country excluded fishermen of the other from areas of its undisputed jurisdiction. Fishermen of both countries con- tinued operations in the boundary region where the claims overlapped, subject only to their respective domestic regulations. In September 1978 Canada published a second boundary claim on Georges Bank. The United States Government promptly informed the Canadian Government that it considered the claim to be without merit and that any attempts by Canadians to fish beyond the initial Canadian claim would meet with U.S. enforcement action. In November 1978, confirming the earlier fears of both governments, Canada relaxed the restrictions it had - p - placed upon its vessels in the groundfish fishery of the boundary region in response to what it perceived to be a similar relaxation of U.S. management measures for United States vessels. Thereafter, the Canadian catch of haddock, for example, exceeded by nearly 300 percent that tacitly understood to be the Canadian share. In the context of the negotiations, both sides had appeared to agree on the level of total catch that would be sound from the standpoint of stock rebuilding efforts. However, these levels were exceeded in 1978 and accusations continued to be exchanged as to which side was responsible. By January 1979, the special representatives had reached agreement on all but certain details with respect to Northwest Atlantic fisheries issues. Final negotiations resolving these details culminated on March 29, 1979, with the signing of the Agreement Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of Canada on East Coast Fishery Resources, as well as the Treaty Between the Government of the United States of America and the Govern- ment of Canada to Submit to Binding Dispute Settlement the Delimitation of the Maritime Boundary in the Gulf of Maine Area. The two agreements are expressly linked; neither can enter into force without the other. - 7 - Pending ratification of the treaties and their entry into force, east coast fishery relations between the two countries remain as they have since June 1978: fishermen of neither country may fish in the area under the undisputed jurisdiction of the other and no agreement exists with respect to management measures to be applied in the boundary region. B. Concepts Underlying the Proposed Action The major premise underlying the Fisheries Agreement is that stocks utilized by two or more nations can only be protected through a close partnership in cooperative manage- ment and regulation. Since finfish range over large areas, management measures applied by one country to a stock in a part of its range may affect the status of the stock in that part of a range within the jurisdiction of the other country. In addition, where stocks of the same species interact between the zones of the two countries, management measures applied by one country to stocks in its zone may affect stocks in the same species in the other country's zone. The north- eastern portion of Georges Bank is the location of a major component of the fishery resource traditionally utilized by the United States. For many species, this is an area of major abundance. Some species live in the area all year and others occupy it seasonally. The absence of a mechanism for - 8 - coordinated management of these species threatens their future stability and that of fishermen, processors, and consumers who utilize these fish. The management mechanism established by the Agreement is designed to ensure that each stock of fish will be regulated in a coordinated manner. The principles applicable to manage- ment are patterned on the FCMA's national standards. The entitlements set forth in the Agreement for each country to preserve historical fishing patterns and to promote conser- vation by reducing the risks of competitive overfishing. - 9 - II. ALTERNATIVES INCLUDING THE PROPOSED ACTION A. Proposed Federal Action The proposed federal action is the ratification and implementation of the Agreement Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of Canada on East Coast Fishery Resources (Appendix I). The Agreement would institute a comprehensive regime to coordinate management of fish within the fishery zones of the United States and Canada and enable the resumption of important traditional fisheries of each in the areas in which the other exercises undisputed fisheries jurisdiction. 1 . Annexes to the Agreement Annexes A, B and C to the Agreement define fisheries in terms of stocks.* Each of the stocks in the Agreement was selected on the basis of historical fishing patterns, management under ICNAF, and its distribution pattern in the Georges Bank - Gulf of Maine area. As a convenient way to identify stocks geographically, Annex D labels subareas, divisions, and subdivisions of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean in the same manner as under ICNAF (figures 1 and 3). By and *A stock is a subpopulation of one fish species whose members interact in a limited geographical area. A stock may be characterized by a unique spawning place or time and maintain a separate gene pool. Management measures applied to one stock will not necessarily impact on other stocks. - 10 - large, Annexes A, B, and C list those stocks which will be subject to Category A, B, and C procedures, respectively. These management procedures are set forth chiefly in Articles V, VI, and VII of the Agreement. The Annexes, however, contain the terms for fishing access and commercial entitlements and, where appropriate, designate the Party with management responsibility. Category A, Management Management of Category A stocks is truly a joint exercise of the two countries. Unlike Category B or C management, neither side is designated as the Party with primary management responsibility. Management measures are negotiated in the East Coast Fisheries Commission (see part 2 of this section). Thus the Commission is chiefly respon- sible for Category A management, subject to approval by the governments and to the binding dispute settlement process in case of disagreement (see figure 2a) . Those resources in Annex A are normally regarded as transboundary stocks. Outlined below are the stocks listed in Annex A and the specified share of the annual permissible commercial catch (PPC) to which the fisherman of each side are entitled: - Atlantic mackerel in Subareas 3, 4, 5, and 6: 60 percent for U.S. vessels and 40 percent for Canadian vessels. - 11 - - Pollock in Divisions 4V, 4W and 4X and Subarea 5: 74.4 percent for Canadian vessels and 25.6 percent for U.S. vessels. - Cusk in Subdivision 5Ze: 66 percent for Canadian vessels and 34 percent for U.S. vessels. Management measures for cusk and pollock stocks will be adopted pursuant to Category A procedures. In the case of Atlantic mackerel, the annual total allowable catch (TAC) and PCC will be set according to Category A procedures; other mackerel management measures will be set according to Category B procedures, with each Party having primary management responsibility in its own zone. In addition, at the beginning of the fourth year of the Agreement, the Parties will consider whether scientific evidence warrants setting the TAC for the northern or southern component of the mackerel stock pursuant to Category B procedures, with recourse to arbitration in the event of disagreement. Annex A also contains a special provision for northern lobster in the boundary region pending delimitation of the boundary in the Gulf of Maine area. During that period management will be according to Category A procedures, and neither side will expand its fishing effort unless autho- rized by the Commission. - 12 - Finally, Category A procedures apply to management measures concerning size limits of sea scallops (e.g., shell size and meat counts). Because the rest of the scallop management measures are to be handled under Category B procedures the Agreement lists the scallop stock in Annex B. Category B Management Category B management involves the designation of one side or the other as the Party having the primary interest with respect to management for each stock. Most of the stocks for which Category B procedures will apply are listed in Annex B, with the exception of Atlantic mackerel which is listed in Annex A because the annual TAC and PCC will be set in accordance with Category A procedures. The Fisheries Commission's role under Category B management is chiefly to review proposals by the Party of primary interest. There is also provision for binding dispute settlement regarding Category B proposals, but unlike Category A dispute settle- ment, the Agreement builds in a preference in favor of the measures proposed by the Party of primary interest. Under this preference the measures developed by the party of primary interest will enter into force and remain in effect unless the Co-Chairmen or Arbitrator find them "clearly inconsistent" with the management principles set forth in the Agreement. (See Figure 2b.) Figure 2a CATEGORY "A" MANAGEMENT DECISION PATH FINAL PLAN ARBITRATOR CO-CHAIRMEN ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE DISPUTE COMMISSION RECONVENES TO RESOLVE DISAGREEMENT COMMISSION PREPARES COMPREHENSIVE PLAN COMMISSION REACHES PARTIAL OR NO AGREED PLAN COMMISSION CONVENES Path of Agreement Path of Disagreement Figure 2b CATEGORY "B" MANAGEMENT DECISION PATH FINAL PLAN DISPUTED MEASURES FOUND NOT INCONSISTENT ARE RETAINED IN PLAN ARBITRATOR CO-CHAIRMEN REVIEW ONLY FOR CLEAR INCONSISTENCY OBJECTIONS ONLY ON GROUND THAT MANAGEMENT MEASURES OR MODIFICATIONS ARE CLEARL Y INCONSISTENT WITH GOVERNING PRINCIPLES ENTIRE PLAN GOES INTO EFFECT PENDING RULING ON OBJECTIONS. IF ANY _l_ COMMISSION REVIEWS PLAN - MAY PROPOSE MODIFICATIONS Path of Agreed Provisions and Modifications Patti of Objections, If Any Patfi If Commission Does Not Reacfi Agreement - 15 - It is essential to understand that the Agreement gives Canada and the United States equal power to object regarding annual management measures for Annex A and B stocks. The nature of the power depends on whether the stock concerned is under joint management responsibility pursuant to Annex A procedures, under the primary responsibility of the United States pursuant to Annex B procedures, or under the primary responsibility of Canada pursuant to Annex B procedures. In the case of Annex A stocks, both Canada and the United States have the right to object to annual measures agreed upon by the Commission. Whenever such an objection is made, the Co-Chairmen or the Arbitrator will make the final decision on the management measures to be applied, after considering the viewpoints of each side. It can be anticipated that the governments will be reluctant to object to measures worked out in the Commission by their respective fishery experts (the majority of whom on the U.S. side will be Regional Fishery Management Council members), because the outcome of dispute settlement is beyond their own control. - 16 - In the case of Annex B stocks under the primary respon- sibility of the United States, Canada is in a subordinate position. The U.vS. proposals for annual management measures will take effect unless the Commission agrees on modifications to which the United States does not object. Canada may object to the proposed or modified measures, but the measures as approved by the United States will remain in effect despite an objection unless and until the Co-Chairmen or the Arbitrator overrule them and substitute alternative measures. Canada's chances of prevailing in an objection are limited since neither the Co-Chairmen nor the Arbitrator may overrule the U. S. -approved measures without finding the measures to be "clearly inconsistent" with the Agreement's governing prin- ciples, which are patterned on the FCMA's national standards. Because of the flexibility of the governing principles, clearly inconsistent measures are likely to be encountered infrequently. As in the Annex A situation, it can be expected that Canada will be reluctant to exercise its objection power with respect to proposed measures or modifications that have been supported in the Commission by its own fishery experts . Listed below, according to the Party having primary management responsibility, are the Annex B stocks for which the fishermen on each side are entitled to a specified share of the PCC: - 17 - (a) Stocks under the Primary Responsibility of the United States - Atlantic herring in Division 5Y, excluding Grand Manan Banks and not including the juvenile herring fishery within three nautical miles of the U.S. coast: 100 percent for U.S. vessels. - Atlantic herring in Division 5Z and Subarea 6: FIRST THREE-YEAR PERIOD — 2000 m.t. for Canadian and the remainder for U.S. vessels; - SECOND THREE-YEAR PERIOD — Canadian vessels may catch 2000 m.t. plus 50 percent of the portion of the PCC that exceeds 21,000 m.t., U.S. vessels may catch 100 percent of the first 21,000 m.t. of the PCC, less 2000 m.t., as well as 50 percent of the portion above 21,000 m.t. However, Canadian vessels will be entitled to one-third of PCC if the total PCC is 45,000 m.t. or above; AFTER SIX YEARS — one-third for Canadian vessels and two-thirds for U.S. vessels. - Sea scallops in Subdivision 5Ze (Canada has primary management responsibility east - 18 - of 68° 30' west longitude and the United States west of 68° 30' west longitude, except for management measures related to size limits, which are determined in accordance with Category A procedures): 73.35 percent for Canadian vessels and 26.65 percent for U.S. vessels. - Atlantic cod in Division 5Z: 83 percent for U.S. vessels and 17 percent for Canadian vessels. - Haddock in Subarea 5: 79 percent for U.S. vessels and 21 percent for Canadian vessels. - Silver hake in Subdivision 5Ze: 90 percent for U.S. vessels and 10 percent for Canadian vessels. - Red hake in Subdivision 5Ze: 90 percent for U.S. vessels and 10 percent for Canadian vessels. - White hake in Subarea 5: 94 percent for U.S. vessels and 6 percent for Canadian vessels. (b) Stocks Under the Primary Responsibility of Canada - Atlantic herring in Divisions 4W and 4X - 19 - and in the portion of Division 5Y which encompasses the Grand Manan Banks, not including the juvenile herring fishery within three nautical miles of Canada's coast: 100 percent for Canadian vessels. -. Atlantic argentine in Divisions 4V, 4W, and 4X and in Subarea 5: 75 percent for Canadian vessels and 25 percent for U.S. vessels. - White hake in Divisions 4V, 4W and 4X: 94 percent for Canadian vessels and 6 percent for U.S. vessels. With respect to Atlantic herring stocks, there are two additional provisions not noted above. The first deals with access to the stock in Division 5Z and Subarea 6, limiting U.S. vessels to the area west of 66° west longitude and Canadian vessels to the area east of 68° 30' west longitude. The second provision calls for a review of the management categorizations of the herring stocks at the end of the first and second three-year periods, with the second review being subject to binding dispute settlement. In general, vessels of both countries may have access to the areas in which the Annex B stocks are located. However, access for U.S. vessels to the white hake stock in Divisions 4V, 4W and 4X is limited to Division 4X. - 20 - Access to the white hake stock in Subarea 5, on the other hand, is limited for Canadian vessels to Subdivision 5Ze and that portion of Division 5Y which is in the Canadian fishery zone. The final paragraph in Annex B pertains to Illex squid in Subareas 3, 4, 5, and 6. Canada has primary management responsibility for the portion of the stock in Subareas 3 and 4 and the United States the primary responsibility for the portion in Subareas 5 and 6. Pend- ing delimitation of the boundary in the Georges Bank - Gulf of Maine area, vessels of neither side are to fish for Illex squid in the boundary region (unless otherwise agreed); access to the rest of the stock is limited for vessels of each Party to that Party's fishery zone. Category C Managemen t Annex C lists stocks which occur primarily in one country's fishery zone but in which an interest of the other Party is accomodated under the terms of this Agreement. One Party or the other is invested with management respon- sibility. Selection of appropriate management measures is entirely within the discretion of the country having manage- ment responsibility. Except under special circumstances. Category C measures may not be implemented until the other side has had an opportunity for consultation at a Commission - 21 - meeting. The Party not having management responsibility can- not invoke binding dispute settlement under the Agreement to seek a change in management measures; neither the Co-Chairmen nor the Arbitrator has the power under any circumstances to impose its own management measures in lieu of the measures selected by the Party with management responsibility. The Annex C stocks for which fishermen on each side are entitled to a specified share of the PCC for an indefinite period are broken down as follows, according to the country with management responsibility: ( 1) Stocks under the Responsibility of the United States - Atlantic cod in Subarea 5Y : 98.4 percent for U.S. vessels and 1.6 percent for Canadian vessels. - Atlantic redfish in Subarea 5: 99 percent for U.S. vessels and 1 percent for Canadian vessels. - Other Atlantic groundfish (e.g., yellowtail flounder) in Subarea 5: 99 percent for U.S. vessels and 1 percent for Canadian vessels. (2 ) Stocks under the Responsibility of Canada - Atlantic cod in Division 4W and Subdivision 4Vs: 98.6 percent for Canadian vessels and 1.4 percent for U.S. vessels. - 22 - - Atlantic cod in Division 4X, the offshore portion: 92.5 percent for Canadian vessels and 7.5 percent for U.S. vessels. - Haddock in Division 4X: 90 percent for Canadian vessels. . - Other Atlantic groundfish in Subareas 3 and 4: 99 percent for Canadian vessels and 1 percent for U.S. vessels. Fishing access for Category C stocks is the same for vessels of both sides, except that "other Atlantic ground- fish" in the other Party's zone may be caught only incidentally. Special provisions relate to Atlantic redfish stocks within undisputed Canadian jurisdiction, the Loligo squid stock (which is primarily within undisputed U.S. jurisdiction), northern lobster after determination of the boundary, incidental catch, and fishing by U.S. vessels in the vicinity of Grand Manan Island. The right of U.S. vessels to fish for redfish in the undisputed portion of the Canadian fishery zone expires ten years after the Agreement enters into force. All of these redfish stocks are under Canadian management responsibility. During the ten-year period U.S. vessels will have the right to catch 35 percent of the PCC for the redfish stock in Divisions 4V, 4W, and 4X. In addition, U.S. vessels have a conditional interest of 10 percent in any portion of the - 23 - redfish stock in Divisions 4R, 4S, and 4T that Canada decides to set aside for vessels based outside the Gulf of St Lawrence. Finally, U.S. vessels have a right to take 600 metric tons (MT) of redfish from Subarea 3 stocks. Until the maritime boundary between France and Canada is determined (involving two French islands off the coast of Newfoundland) , the 600 MT must be taken from the stock in Division 3-0 (figure 3). After the determination of that boundary, the United States and Canada may, upon application by the United States, agree to switch the entitlement to the stock in Division 3P. The Loligo squid rights of Canadian vessels are limited to the ten year period following entry into force of the Agreement. The stock, located in Division 5Z and Subarea 6, is under the management responsibility of the United States. During the ten-year period Canadian vessels are authorized to catch 9 percent of the PCC. In order to curtail gear conflicts, the United States is authorized to impose more restrictive measures on Canadian vessels than on its own. However, such regulation shall be designed to give Canadian vessels an opportunity to catch the full entitlement with- out undue fishing hardship. The northern lobster provision becomes applicable upon determination of the boundary in the Gulf of Maine area. The stock, located in Subarea 4 and 5, is to be under split management: each side will manage the portion in its own - 24 - fishery zone. Similarly, rights of fishing access for each country's vessels are limited to its own zone. However, parties may agree to reciprocal access, in which case questions of gear restrictions are subject to arbitration. 2 . East Coast Fisheries Commission Chapter I of the Agreement deals with fisheries manage- ment and provides for the establishment of the bilateral East Coast Fisheries Commission. The Commission will take into account the management programs of the states and fish caught in state waters. Each Party will appoint seven members to form that Party's national section. Commission members will serve at the pleasure of the appointing Party. Each Party will pay the expenses of its national section. All other expenses of the Commission will be borne by the Parties in equal shares. The Commission will determine an annual budget for submission to the Parties for their approval. The Agreement provides that the Commission's headquarters will be located at a place to be determined by the Parties. It is anticipated that the headquarters will be located within the United States in the New England area. The Commission will appoint an Executive Secretary and such staff as are agreed by the Parties. With the approval of the Parties, the Commission may establish a Scientific Committee and such other committees as are necessary to carry out its functions. - 25 - The Commission will meet as often as necessary to carry out its functions but must .meet at least once each calendar year. Decisions of the Commission are to be taken by the affirm- tive vote of both national sections. The Commission will: (1) Determine the initial fishing year for Category A stocks within 45 days after entry into force of the Agreement; (2) Review proposals submitted to it by the Party of primary interest concerning the initial fishing year for Category B stocks and agree on such proposals within 75 days after entry into force of the Agreement; (3) Agree within six months after entry into force of the Agreement on historical ratios of each Party's annual recreational catch to total recreational and commercial catch; (4) Determine annual management measures ^oc Category A stocks in accordance with the management principles contained in the Agreement; (5) Review annual management measures proposed by the Party of primary interest for Category B stocks to ensure their consistency with the management principles contained in the Agreement; - 26 - (6) Serve as a forum for consultation between the Parties with respect to annual management measures contemplated for Category C stocks by the Party having management responsibility; (7) Recommend to the Parties the amendment of any provision of the Annexes to the Agreement, including the addition or deletion of stocks, the transfer of stocks from one Annex to another , and changes in fishing entitlements and access areas; (8) Coordinate the collection of statistics and make recommendations to the Parties for cooperative research programs; (9) Determine the amount to be deducted from the entitlement of either Party for the following fishing year or years should either exceed its annual entitlement in a given year. In addition to the Commission members, the Commission will have two Co-Chairmen jointly appointed by the Parties. The Co-chairmen may not be nationals of the same Party and will not form part of the national section of either Party. The Co-chairmen will preside over Commission meetings and carry out their duties and responsibilities in an impartial manner. Co-Chairmen will serve initial terms of five years but may be reappointed. Either Party at any time may with- draw its consent to the service of a Co-Chairman; in such case, the Parties jointly will appoint a successor. - 27 - During Commission deliberations, the Co-Chairmen will facilitate and guide discussions, but have no voting power The Co-chairmen will: (1) Atteinpt to resolve disputes if either Party objects to management measures recommended by the Commission for Category A stocks, or if the Commission is unable to agree on such measures; (2) Attempt to resolve questions referred to them by a Party which maintains that management measures proposed by the Party of primary interest for Category B stocks are clearly inconsistent with the management principles contained in the Agreement; (3) Make amendments of limited duration to manage- ment measures for Category A stocks and propose to the Commission the extended application of such amendments, in the event the stocks in question are threatened with serious and immediate harm due to unforeseen circumstances arising during the fishing year, or if there is an economic emergency that can be alleviated without significant adverse effects on conservation of the stocks; (4) Attempt to resolve any other question involving the application or interpretation of the Agreement referred to them by either or both Parties; - 28 - (5) Award appropriate relief if they decide that management measures proposed by the Party of primary interest for Category B stocks are clearly inconsistent with the management principles contained in the Agreement; (5) Award appropriate relief in the case of a dispute involving the application or interpreta- tion of the Agreement if they decide that a provision of the Agreement has been contravened. The Agreement also provides that an Arbitrator be appointed jointly by the Parties. Should the Parties be unable to agree, the arbitrator shall be appointed by the Country of International Justice, in which case the Arbitrator may not be a national or permanent resident of the United States or Canada. ^ The Arbitrator will serve for a term of five years but may be reappointed. Either Party at any time may withdraw its consent to the service of the Arbitrator; in such case the Parties jointly will appoint a successor. The Parties will determine the remuneration and expenses of the Arbitrator, which costs will be included in the Commission's budget as joint expenses. Office facilities and services at the Commission's headquarters will be provided. The Arbitrator will be entitled to attend all meetings of the Commission - 29 - and wiii be provided with copies of all Commission minutes and aocuments when they are issued. The Arbitrator will: (L) Decide any dispute related to the determination of the appropriate initial fishing year for each Categoty A stock if either Party objects to the decision of the Commission or if the Commission cannot reach a decision; (2) Decide any dispute related to the appropriate initial fishing year for each Category B stock, if the Commission cannot agree to the proposal made by the Party of priiaary interest; (3) Decide disputes related to the appropriate ratio of historical annual recreational catch to commercial catch if either Party oDjects to the decision of the Commission; (4) Decide disputes related to extending the application of emergency measures for Category A stocks proposed by the Co-Chairmen; (5) Decide disputes related to emergency measures for Category B stocks proposed by the Party of primary interest; (6) Adjust entitlements for the following fishing year to restore the balance of fishing opportunities - 30 - if he decides that an amended management measure for a Category B stock will deprive a Party of its proportionate share of the catch during a given fishing year and that deprivation cannot be rectified during that fishing year; (7) Redetermine entitlements within certain limits at ten-year intervals if such redetermination is requested by a Party and the Parties have been unable to agree on adjusted entitlements; (8) Decide questions with respect to time limits or other administrative procedures contained in the Agreement if, at any time after five years from the entry into force of the Agreement, the Parties are unable to reach agreement on a requested change; (9) Decide disputes with respect to management measures for Category A stocks that cannot be resolved by the Commission, the Parties, or the Co-chairmen; (10) Decide any disputes related to management measures for any Category B stock proposed by the Party of primary interest if the other Party has objected to the measures and the Co-Chairmen cannot resolve the dispute; - 31 - (11) Decide questions related to the application or interpretation of the Agreement that cannot be resolved by the Co-Chairmen on referral by a Party, and review decisions of the Co-Chairmen on such matters to ensure their consistency with his prior decisions; (12) Determine the amount to be deducted from the entitlement of either Party for the following fishing year or years should either Party exceed its annual entitlement in a given year and should the Commission be unable to resolve the matter. 3 . Management Principles In order to guide the two governments and the Com- mission in formulating management measures for Category A and B stocks. Article X of the Agreement sets forth seven fishery management principles. The Co-Chairmen and Arbitrator are required to apply these principles in resolving disputes over Category A or B management measures. A few of the principles apply to Category C stocks, primarily to ensure equitable treatment of the fishermen of the Party not having management responsibility. These principles closely parallel the National Standards of the FCMA. Slightly paraphrased, the management principles are as follows: - 32 - (i) Management .Measures tor Category A and B stocks snail De aesignea to (a) achieve the optimum yield from each stock, taking into account stock inter- relationships and all other relevant ecological factors and the nature and extent of the economic and social interests of each Party in the stock, (d) briny about an exploitation rate that will maintain the long-term productivity of fishery resources (unless otherwise agreed), and (c) prevent overfishing ot fishery resources, allow rebuilding of depleted stocks, and avoid irreversible or long-term adverse effects on fishery resources and the marine environment. (2) Management measures for Category A and B stocks shall be based on the best scientific information available. (3) Management measures for Category A and B stocks shall take into account demonstrated degrees of stock and species interrelationships so that the productive potential of related stocks or species is not seriously threatened. (4) Management measures for Category A and B stocks shall take into account the need for efficiency in administration and enforcement, the avoidance of - 33 - unnecessary duplication, the need for maintaining the confidence of each Party in the administration and enforcement actions of the other Party, and the need to avoid disruptive changes in patterns of exploitation. (5) Management measures for Category A, B, and C stocks shall provide to the fishermen of each side the opportunity to catch their entitlement to the stock in question. (6) Management measures for Category A, B, and C stocks shall ensure access by each Party's fishermen to specified areas within the other Party's undisputed jurisdiction in order to catch entitlements, to the extent the Agreement permits such access. (7) Management measures for Category A, B, and C stocks shall not discriminate in form or effect between the fishermen of the Parties (except for the Loligo squid stock, in which case Canadians vessels may be regulated more strictly than Americans). Management measures adopted through the Commission's procedures are intended to be final and binding; however, recognizing that some flexibility is required in cases affecting serious and immediate harm to resources. Article VII provides for an expedited procedure for putting manage- ment measures into force. - 34 - 4 . Dispute Settlement Mechanisms The Agreement establishes a binding dispute settlement mechanism which is a cornerstone of the Agreement. The goal is to have the best resource management program in force and to guarantee that decisions will be made in a timely manner. This mechanism is an incentive to the national sections to reach agreement on management issues. The Co-chairmen and the Arbitrator are the central figures in the binding dispute settlement system. Their decisions on disputes pertaining to Category A and B manage- ment measures and to interpretations of the Agreement shall be binding on the Parties. Category C management measures are not subject to the Agreement's dispute settlement system. The Arbitrator in most instances may not consider a dispute until the Co-Chairmen have attempted to decide the matter and have failed to reach agreement within the time limit stated in the Agreement. Notable exceptions are the expedited settlement procedures for disputes concerning initial fishing years, historical ratios of recreational catch to commercial catch, and emergency amendments to annual management measures. Under these expedited proce- dures a dispute will not be addressed by the Co-Chairmen but will go directly to the Arbitrator for resolution. - 35 - In the case of the redetermination of national entitlements, which may occur once every' ten years, the Arbitrator will receive disputes directly from the Parties. Dispute settlement for Category A management measures is distinctly different from dispute settlement for Category B measures. In a dispute related to annual management measures for a Category A stock, for example, the Co-Chairmen or the Arbitrator, as the case may be, will have the discretion to formulate whatever management measures they consider appropriate in light of presentations by both sides. Those measures will be legally binding on the Parties at the time of the decision. However, in the case of a dis- pute over management ineasures proposed for a Category B stock by the Party of primary management responsibility, the Co- Chairmen and the Arbitrator have a more confined role. Before they may substitute their own management measures for those proposed by the Party of primary interest, they must find that the proposed management measures are "clearly inconsistent" with the Agreement's management principles. When questions regarding management measures are referred to them, the Co-Chairmen have fifteen days to reach agreement; on matters involving the application or interpretation of the Agreement, they must act within thirty days. In the case of the Arbitrator various time limits - 36 - apply, from periods of as little as fifteen days for emergency management measures during the fishing year to more than one year for redetermination of national catch entitlements. Normally the Arbitrator must decide on management measures thirty days after assuming jurisdiction over each question and on other matters ninety days after assuming jurisdiction. Agreed decisions of the Co-Chairmen within the pre- scribed time limits are binding on the Parties, subject to the right of the Parties to agree on different relief or to refer the question to the Arbitrator on the basis of inconsistency with the Arbitrator's prior decisions. Similarly the Arbitrator's decisions are legally binding, although either Party may request review of a decision in light of new factors of decisive importance not previously known or discoverable. Within thirty days after making each decision the Co-Chairmen and Arbitrator must issue a reasoned opinion explaining the basis for decision. 5 . Adjustment Provisions The Agreement is of indefinite duration and contains no provision for unilateral termination upon notice to the other Party. Because of this permanent character, the Agreement includes provisions for adjustment of certain rights of the Parties. The first such provision pertains to the right of either Party, at ten year intervals, to request a review of - 37 - any of the national catch entitlements for stocks covered by the Agreement. The second requires the review of any time limit or other administrative procedure, at the request of either Party at any time after five years following the Agreement's entry into force. Both provisions call for mandatory binding dispute settlement by the Arbitrator after a stated time for the end of negotiations — after the first nine months of the ninth year of each ten-year interval in which a Party requests an entitlement redetermination and after six months from the date a Party requests review of an administrative procedure. The entitlement redetermination provision contains a number of special conditions, outlined as follows: (a) Each redetermined entitlement enters into force in the fishing year following the redetermination and remains in force until a subsequent redetermination. (b) In general, a redetermination by the Arbitrator must reflect the average annual proportion of the stock in question which occurs in the fishery zone of each Party, except that the Arbitrator may moderate a change in entitle- ment to take into account economic and social ramifications. (c) Notwithstanding the principle of proportionate dis- tribution within the zones of the Parties, the Arbitrator's ability to reduce an entitlement is limited by two types of restrictions. First, there is a limit on the extent to which - 38 - an entitlement percentage may be decreased from one ten-year period to the next. If a Party's entitlement upon the Agree- ment's entry into force was fifty percent or more of the annual permissible commercial catch, that entitlement could be decreased by no more than ten percent at each ten year interval. If an entitlement upon the Agreement's entry into force was less than fifty percent, the periodic decrease could be no more than five percent. Second, there is a restriction applicable to the overall reduction of a Party's original entitlement as a result of successive redeterminations, This overall reduction may not exceed one-third of the original entitlement. . 6 . Other Provisions a. Limited Access . For any Category A, B, or C stock, the Agreement authorizes the establishment of a system for limiting access to the fishery or restricting fishing to certain vessels or fishermen. However, two conditions must be satisfied first: (1) the system must be directly related to conservation and must not be for the purpose of economic allocation and (2) notwithstanding the Agreement's dispute settlement provisions, the system must be expressly approved by both Parties. b. Scientific Cooperation . The Agreement calls for the Parties and the Commission to share scientific data involving the work of the Commission. The Commission is authorized to collect statistics and make recommendations to the - 39 - Parties for cooperative research. The Agreement also encourages the continuation, and in appropriate instances the expansion, of cooperation in fishery research between the Parties. c. Reports of Catch and Location Data . The Agreement requires fishermen of both countries to report catch and related data in a manner determined by the Commission. The Agreement also authorizes each Party, for fishing in its fishery zone, to require the other Party's fishermen engaged in such fishing to make reports of catch and location data at reasonable intervals. d. Confidentiality of Statistics . Both the Parties and the Commission are required to preserve the confidential nature of the records or statistics of individual catches and individual company operations. e. Right to be Considered for Allocation of Surplus Fish . The Agreement envisions two types of situations that may give rise to a decision by one Party, with respect to fish in which its own fishermen have a preferential interest, to allow fishermen of the other Party to harvest such fish. One type of situation involves a portion of an entitlement to a Category A, B, or C stock which is surplus to the granting Party's requirements; the other involves the surplus portion of a stock not in any of the three Agreement categories - 40 - (e.g., sharks, sand lance). In either type of situtation the Agreement simply requires that the granting Party give consideration to a request by the other Party for an alloca- tion. In short, it has the same practical effect as a Governing International Fishery Agreement (GIFA) negotiated pursuant to bection 201 of the FCWA. If U.S. fishermen will be unable to harvest the entire U.S. entitlement to a given Category A, B, or C stock, or the entire FCMA optimum yield of a fishery not covered by the Agreement, the United States may allocate the surplus portion among Canada and foreign countries that have entered into GIFA's. The Agreement ^^laces Canada on an equal footing with GIFA countries insofar as eligibility for an allocation of surplus is concerned. t. Fishing Within Twelve Miles of the Coast . With a single exception, the Agreement requires that commercial fishermen of one side, when inside the other side's fishery zone, conduct their fishing seaward of twelve nautical miles from the coast. The exception allows U.S. fishermen to fish in the area between three and twelve nautical miles from Grand Manan Island in the Canadian zone. g. Fishing by Vessels of Third Party Countries . Each Party is authorized under the Agreement to permit fishing of a portion of its entitlement by vessels of third party coun- tries. However, such third party fishing may occur only in - 4 J. - the undisputed portion of the granting Party's fishery zone, may be authorized only a year at a time, and must be subject to management measures at least as restrictive as those in force under the Agreement. h. Recreational Fishing . Nationals and vessels of each Party are guaranteed access to all areas covered by the Agreement, subject to applicable regulations and permit and licensing requirements (except foreign fishing requirements set by the federal law of Canada or the United States) . The historical ratio of recreational to commercial catch, to be determined in the first year after the Agreement enters into force, forms the basis for controlling the recreational harvest of Category A, B, and C stocks. Any recreational catch that exceeds a Party's historical ratio must be counted against the commercial entitlement for the same stock. Thus a Party may have to decide how much it is willing to permit its recreational fishery to expand, given the fact that expansion beyond the historical ratio will reduce the amount of fish available to its commercial fishermen. i. Herring Transfers . The Agreement authorizes the continuation of at-sea transfers of herring between vessels of both Parties in the Gulf of Maine-Bay of Fundy area. j. Observers . To monitor activities in areas under its undisputed jurisdiction, each Party has the right under the - 42 - Agreement to place its observers on the vessels of the other party operating in these areas. k. Arrangements in Boundary Region . Pending the delimi- tation of a maritime boundary, interim arrangements in the boundary region are to be continued. As between nationals and vessels of each Party, flag state enforcement will be the rule. No vessels of third party countries may be authorized to fish in the boundary region and both Parties are authorized to enforce against such vessels. 1. Port Access . The Agreement makes the customs ports of each Party available to nationals and vessels of both Parties for the purposes of purchasing bait, supplies, outfits, and fuel, and for effecting repairs. Such access is subject to general requirements for advance notice of port entry, availability of facilities, and the needs of domestic fishermen and their vessels. - 43 - B. Alternatives to the Proposed Action The proposed action is inherently flexible, partly to encourage innovative resource management and to respond to changing conditions of the stocks and national objectives. Thus, the Agreement embraces an almost infinite number of access and management alternatives. There are, however, four alternatives to the proposed action that have been identified. These are: 1. No agreement. 2. Settlement of the maritime boundary, only. 3. Negotiation of a resource agreement after delimitation of the maritime boundary. 4. Negotiation of a less comprehensive resource agreement pending delimitation of the maritime boundary 1. No Agreement This alternative implies a continuation of the current overlap of U.S. and Canadian management programs on the east coast. The establishment of 200-mile fishery zones in 1977 identified a serious difference between the two countries as to the location of the maritime boundary in the Georges Bank - Gulf of Maine area. Although it had been apparent since the 1960 's that there was a difference between the United States and Canada on this point, the requirement of managing fisheries within defined areas greatly exacerbated the problem. - 44 - With the establishment of overlapping fishery zones on Georges Bank, the two countries entered into the 1977 Recip- rocal Fisheries Agreement which set forth the following regime in the boundary region: 1. Vessels of both Parties would fish subject to flag state regulation. 2. As between the Parties, enforcement would be conducted by the flag state. 3. Neither Party would authorize fishing by vessels of third parties in the boundary region. 4. Either Party could enforce against third parties in the boundary region. Since 1977, there has been no agreement in force relating to the boundary region although there continues to be a "gentlemen's agreement" on these three points. Conducting ourselves in this manner has allowed us to avoid actions which would be regarded by the other side as having a juridical content which could not be recognized. However, at the same time, it has meant that both countries have allowed their fishermen to fish in the boundary region without regard to the fishery activities of the other country on the same stocks in the same area. The fact that we are dealing with the claimed rights of both countries makes the matter very difficult and potentially explosive. The agreements defuse this difficult - 45 - situation. It has been suggested that the shared interest of the U.S. and Canada in the stability of the valuable east coast fishery would be sufficient for botli parties to prevent competitive overfishing by their fishermen, and that through informal governmental consultations, greater management flexi- bility would prevail than under the proposed agreement. However, Section I (A) of this statem.ent narrates tlie failure of informal consultations during 1978 to produce interim agreement on fisheries conservation and management goals or to prevent competitive fishing for major stocks such as haddock, cod, pollock and scallops, leading to catches m excess of the expectations of either country. It also led Canada to expell U.S. fishing vessels from the Canadian zone. Maintaining the status quo would continue to inhibit management of stocks as a unit throughout their range. More- over, it would leave unresolved the fundamental issue, namely, how valuable marine resources which are liighly vulnerable to overfishing, available to both countries, and in great demand are to be shared and managed so as to preserve their long term productivity. 2 . Settlement of thg Maritime Boundary, Only This alternative proposes that only the boundary be resolved and that management of the marine environment includ- ing fisheries management should be carried out by the U.S. and Canada thereafter, each on its own side of tlie boundary. Resolution of the boundary alone would clearly define the maritime areas over which each party exercises fisheries jurisdiction, and thereby eliminate the present area of over- lapping jurisdictional claims. Any boundary other than - 46 - that which fully adopts to the U.S. position would perpetuate the current situation in which certain valuable fishery stocks can be caught in both countries' fishery zones. Thus, the absence of a fisheries agreement would leave unresolved the problems noted above in connection with Alternative 1 of how such transboundary resources are to be shared and managed so as to preserve their long term productivi ty. During the consultations leading to the signing of the proposed agreements concerning Atlantic fisheries and the maritime boundary in the Gulf of Maine-Georges Bank area, the special negotiators concluded that the only practical way to resolve the divergent boundary claims of the two countries was through submission of the issue to binding third party dispute settlement. A basic position of Canada has been that it will agree to binding adjudication of the maritime boundary only in conjunction with the implementation of a resource agreement that would survive the boundary determination. The United States cannot unilaterally submit the issue to third party settlement; Canadian agreement to accept such binding third party delimitation is required. 3 . Negotiate a Resource Agreement After Delimitation of the Maritime Boundary This alternative proposes that no management regime be constructed until the maritime boundary delimitation has been completed. If the United States position were fully upheld in the boundary adjudication, the U.S. would be under no obligation -Al- to allow Canada access to Georges Bank and would be able to manage unilaterally the stocks that do not range beyond Geroges Bank or other Gulf of Maine areas under exclusive U.S. fisheries jurisdiction. But, as indicated in the discussion of alternative 2 above, herring, pollock, and mackeral would range across the boundary and require coordinated management by the United States and Canada. On the other hand, if the Canadian boundary position should prevail, Canada could bar U.S. fishermen from the northeastern third of Georges Bank, an extremely important area for scallops, haddock, cod, yellowtail flounder, and many other species. Since almost all of the stocks on Georges Bank would be transboundary , the cooperation of Canada in managing these stocks would be essential. If the boundary established undisputed Canadian jurisdiction over an important part of the range of these Georges Bank stocks, it is reason- able to anticipate that both countries would insist on an equal voice in managing the Georges Bank stocks. The proposed action provides the United States with primary management responsibility for the great majority of Georges Bank stocks, no matter where the boundary falls (see Section II). It has been suggested that by waiting until a maritime boundary is determined the two countries would find it easier to work out a sharing agreement for those stocks occurring throughout the boundary region. This, however, would not necessarily be true. For example, a boundary dividing the - 48 - disputed northeastern section of Georges Bank would not determine the share of fish either country should catch on its side of the line. An intensification of effort might be anti- cipated from the fishermen of either country in any portion of the northeast peak of Georges Bank that remained available to them, if it would assist them in avoiding socio-economic dislocation. An illustration of the effect of an intensfi- cation of effort occurred in the fall of 1978 when Canadian vessels took a substantially higher share (39 percent) than in recent years of the total Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank haddock catch through concentrated fishing on just the northeast part of Georges Bank. It is possible that a country having the predominant proportion of a particular stock on its side of the boundary might find that the other country, through more intensive fishing in a limited area, was taking a disproportionate share of the optimum yield from the stock in the interest of avoiding disruption to its established fisheries. This could make it even more difficult to negotiate a resource agreement after a boundary settlement than before. The Agreement, on the other hand, takes account of the eventual outcome of the boundary settlement and provides for an adjustment of entitlements partly based on the average annual proportion of each stock occurring in the fishery zone of each Party. It is probable that a resource agreement negotiated subsequent to boundary delimitation would result in a manage- ment framework very similar to that in the proposed action. Access and shares might vary according to the location of the - 49 - boundary, but — under this alternative — U.S. fishermen would lose the protection provided to them by the Agreement against sudden changes in shares after the boundary delimitation. Finally, there would be a hiatus of several years with continued overlapping management of important stocks on Georges Bank, which would present the difficulties mentioned in connection with Alternative 1. 4. Negotiation of a Less Comprehensive Resource Agree- ment Pending Delimitation of the Maritime Boundary Implicit in this alternative is the recognition that deferral of a definitive resource agreement until after the delimitation of the maritime boundary requires an interim agreement to address some of the unresolved current and poten- tial problems posed by separate or disjointed management of stocks now shared with Canada. Thus, this alternative may be viewed as a suboption of Alternative 3. A limited agreement pending delimitation of the boundary has advantages over reliance on simple consultations to ad- dress present concerns regarding overfishing of fishery stocks. An interim agreement could bind both governments to whatever management arrangements could be agreed, as consul- tations between governments would not do. Hov/ever, recent experience since implementation of the FCMA suggests that a regime less comprehensive than the one established by the Agreement would not effectively conserve the resources. As noted above, efforts to imple- ment such an interim agreement in 1978 were unsuccessful. - 50 - III: AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT A. The Physi cal and Biolo gical Environment The area encompassed by the proposed action extends off the Atlantic coast from Cape Hatteras to Newfoundland. Within this reqion, the waters lying above the continental shelf and slope to approximately the 100 fathom line are the most productive and imnortant fishing areas. Relatively narrow at Cape Hatteras, the shelf w'dens markedly to the north to form Georges Bank (figure 2;. The Northeast Channel, a major break in the shelf, divides Georges Bank from the Scotian Shelf and connects the deeper portions of the Gulf of Maine with the Atlantic. In the Gulf the shelf narrows consi- derably, but northeast of the Channel off Nova Scotia it widens again. Another major break occurs at the Laurentian Valley, the deep channel between Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. To the east and south of Newfoundland the shelf extends to its greatest breadth, forming the Grand Banks. The southern portion from Cape Hatteras to Georges Bank is fairly uniform physically, with a continental shelf area influenced by many large coastal rivers and estuaries and incised by prominent shelf-edge canyons. Typically, the bottom is sand interspersed with large pockets of sand-gravel and sand-shell. Below 110 fathoms (200 meters, or m), the CD o CO i § J i '-^ ^ f 5 -6- - 52 - substrate becomes a mixture of silt, silt-sand, and clay- As the continental slope deepens into the abyssal plain at depths greater than 1000 fathoms (lR30m), clay predomi- nates over silt and becomes the major substrate (MAFMC, 1978). Unlike the more uniform southern portion, the shelf area north of Georges Bank i^ characterized by many scat- tered rises which comprisf the various fishing banks. The estuarine influence of coastal rivers is absent, and there are none of the canyon features which are typical to the south. The northern portion is also characterized by colder waters as the influence of the Gulf Stream current diminishes ^nd a colder current regime becomes more predominant. The dominant current in the region is the Gulf Stream, which forms a narrow river of v^arm water from the Gulf of Mexico to the Northwest Atlantic (figure 4). In the spring, a large circular flow of water around Georges Bank creates the Georges Bank Eddy. The eddy dissipates in the fall, when most water moves southerly over the Bank (Res. Inst. G. Maine, 1974). A second eddy encompasses the entire Gulf of Maine. Distributional charts of commercially important species are included in figures 5a through 5o . These charts indicate that almost every such species is present in commercial Figure 4 CANADA 38 Gulf of Maine-Georges Bank. Region Surface Currents Within Slope Water and Coastal Water Masses (^ €> ^ 70 Mercator Projection Scale 1:5,700,000 at 42°N Sounding lines in fathoms 64 53 - 54 - q uantities in both the U.S. and Canadian fishery zones. The distributions are based on Grosslein and Clark (1976), Gusey (1977), Hare (1977), 1974 R/V Albatross survey cruises, and consultations with the NMFS Wood Hole Laboratory and the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans. These charts should no_t be assumed to show absolute abundance or the relative abundance between the U.S. and Canadian zones. Distributions and concentrations are approximate and may vary from year to year due to oceanoqraphic conditions. Narrative descriptions of each species distribution are present in Appendix II. A more thorough description of the affected physical and biological environment is present in Appendix III. B- Areas of Special Biological Importa nce Colton, et al. (1979) summarized importance spawning areas for many important fish on the Georges Bank, and in the Gulf of Maine and Mid-Atlantic areas (Table I) . The most productive grounds are: Georges Bank, Nantucket Shoals, the Great South Channel, and the continental shelf from Cape Hatteras to Block Island. - 55 - Table I. Principal Spawning Areas and Times of Marine Fishes, Cape Sable to Cape Hatteras (Colton, et al. , 1979) . Species Coffmon Gulf , of fmne ■M o| - 'l ijdie Atla n nc 9nnt r '.,. I Scombri dae 'Scorgaenidde Tngl idae Cottidae ;AjiTnodytidae "Stroffidteidae I Pleuronac- , naae Tautoqa om tis Taucogolabrus Seoastes .annus H/Qiocepnalus ociodecem - spinosus Anmodytes sp. ■eprilus tnacanthus Ci thancnuivs Hiopoqiossina oplonga Paraiicfithys Glyptocephalu cynoqlossus iipjoqiossoides piatessoiaes Limanda Pseudopleuro - nectes arr-encanus cautog cunner Atlantic mdckerel northern iearobin longhorn sculpin sand lance butterfisn jj1f Stream flounder fours pot flounaer flounder Mindowoane *itcri flounder American plaice yel loHtai 1 flounder -inter f 1 ounder Mass. Bay ijeorges ■Nant. Shoals -s W. Gulf *<■ Cape.Cod Bay Scotian Shelf i Cent. Gulf SW Georges Nant. Shoals SU Geor-jes Nant. Shoals Hant. Shoals- South iiariL. Shoals- South Georges Bank ;Jant. Shoals- South Georges Bank Mant. Shoals- South >^eorges Sank Caoe Cod- Chesapeak Say 3!ocii Island- Cape rtatteras Cdoe .00- 3e' aware Bay Soutn of "artha ' s '^ ine- yard UL Known spawning season. Uncertain spawning season, * Peak spawning. - 56 - Table I. continued Fami ly Cofimon Same , 1ul,f iiif riairifi A I M ■ ^ , , A S J 1 N 3 xMrtlP^a^Unrir qr.nt M A M ^ I rrr-T-T^ Engraulidae Pomatomidie t Scianldae Clupea harenqus narengus Anchoa hepsetus £nqrauli$ Encnelyoous Gdflus morhua •^glanoqrarnwus aeqlefinuT Merluceius &i 1 inea'n s Urophyds Uropnycis chuss Urophycis '•eqius Urophyds tenuis Ppmatomus TjTTaTrTx CelostiiTWi Micropoqon urnlu ipoqon ilaius Cynosc^on re calls Atlantic menhaden Atlantic herring striped anchovy silver anchovy fourbeard r-ockUng Atlantic cod Western ^ova Scotu Jeffries Ledqe A Stel Iwaqen Sank Nantucket Shoals cffsiiora lake silver h?«e pollock long finned hake spotted hake white hake blyefish Atlantic croaker Georqes Sank Browns Sank Nantucket Shoals Georges Sank Browns Sank South Channel ;JE Georges i Cent, Gulf Southern Georges Mass. 8ay StelUagen South Channel S. Georges riant. Shoals H. of ;ela*.are Nant. Shoals- ginia NY eiqht- C. Hatteras Cont. Slope Ches. Bay- Cape ^latteras Ches. 3av- Cjoe Hatteras Ches 8ay- Montauk. Ll Figure 5a -" — TT I 1 70 Argentine Spring distribution Fall distribution Only the 100 fathom line is shown. Mercator Projection 57 "^ — IT -1 1 1 r 70 1 65 -[ 1 I r Figure 5b Spring distribution Fall distribution Concentrations Only the 100 fathom line is shown, Mercator Projection -^^^ .>5 io ds I I ■ ' 1 _l I I 1 1 J 1 1 L. jI I I I L. 58 ^ — 7; Figure 5c Spring distribution ;;;<] Fall distribution Only the 100 fathom line is sho'vn- Mercator Projection J I I I 1 1 1 1 L. 59 -I 1 1 r 70 Figure 5d -I T" 75 I I I 1 ' I I 65 60 Spring distribution Fall distribution I Concentrations Only the 100 fathom line is shown. Mercator Projection Canada 60 "1 1 — X T 1 r 65 Figure 5e Red Hake Spring distribution Fall distribution Only the 100 fathom line is shown. Mercator Projection Canada 61 -! \ r- 65 Silver Hake Spring distribution Fall distribution Concentrations Onlv the 100 fathom hne is shown Mercator Projection Canada 62 -I r 65 Figure 5g 70 White Hake Spring distribution Fall distribution Only the 100 fathom line is sho^vn. Mercator Projection -J 1 I ' I I 63 Figure 5h Atlantic Herring Spring distribution Fall distribution I I Concentrations ^ Migrations Only the 100 fathom line is shown Mercator Projection J I I L. _i I u 64 IT — I 1 r 70 — I 1 1 1 1 1 r 65 60 Figure 5i Lobster Spring distribution Fall distribution — ^- Migrations Both inshore and offshore stocks are shown Only the 100 fathom line is showvn. Mercator Projection Canada 65 -1 r — r- 70 1 r I 65 Figure 5) vZy/\ Spring distribution ^^^ Fall distribution Concentrations ► Migrations Only the 100 fathom line is shown. Mercator Projection Canada ' ' ' 66 IT 1 1 1 r 65 Figure 5k Spring distribution Fall distribution i Concentrations — -*■ Spring migration ■^ Fall migration Only the 100 fathom line is shown. Mercator Projection Canada fc^-* 5 4o ■ \ I 1 1 J 1- 67 -1 1 r 70 -! 1 1 1 1 1— 65 60 Figure 51 Spring distribution Fall distribution Concentrations Only the 1CX) fathom line is shown. Mercator Projection Canada _i I I J I I I J I 1 L. 68 ^ — TT Figure 5m Spring distribution Fall distribution I Concentrations Onlv the 1 00 fathom line is shown. Marcator Projection 69 —r- 75 Figure 5n —! T — Loiigo Squid Winter and Spring distribution Summer and Fall distribution Summer/Fall spawning -^- Migrations Only The 100 fathorn line is sho'vn Mercator Projection i I 1 L. 70 IT -| 1 r -~r 70 Figure 5o lllex Squid Winter and Spring distribution ^ Summer and Fall distribution Migrations Only the 100 fathom line is shown. Mrcator Projection ' ' I I L. 71 - 72 - Human Environment The human environment that would be directly affected by the proposed action through its ultimate impact on the availability and price of fish consists primarily of fish harvesters and processors located on the east coast of the United States from Maine to Virginia. It also consists of consumers throughout the nation. Likely impacts of the proposed action are assessed in section IV(A)(3) of this statement. In addition, individuals and organizations dependent in whole or in part on the fishing industry would be indirectly affected by the proposed action. These individuals and organizations include, among others, those involved in transporting fish and fish products, constructing fishing vessels and processing plants, supplying and outfitting fish harvesters and processors, etc. Secondary or indirect impacts that may result from the proposed action are not assessed herein because of the speculative nature of such an assessment and the lack of available data. In response to Congressional inquiries, the Northeast Regional Office of the National Marine Fisheries Service prepared a document entitled "A Short Run Economic Impact - 73 - Analysis of the U . S . -Canad i an Agreement on East Coast Fishery Resources" in June 1979. Parts I and II of that document contain detailed information describing fish harvesting and processing sectors that would be affected by the proposed action. The document is available on request from the Director, Northeast Region, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, in Elm Street, Gloucester, Mass. 01930. Appendix IV of this statement profiles commercial fisheries in each state adjacent to areas of potential Canadian access and key fisheries covered by the Agreement. Recreational fisheries, which may account for a large portion of U.S. landings of certain species, are not described due to the lack of recent survey data. - 74 - IV. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES A . Impact of the Proposed Action 1 . Physical Environirent Under the Agreement, Canadian fishing vessels would have access to limited areas of the U.S. fishery conserva- tion zone (FCZ) to harvest the entitlements provided. With the exception of access provided in the Loligo squid fishery, Canadian vessels would be confined to former ICNAF Subarea 5, principally Subdivision 5Ze and, to a lesser extent. Division 5Y (see figure 2,'. They would not be permitted to fish within 12 miles of the U.S. coast. It should be noted that Canadian fishing vessels currently have access to a significant portion of Subdivision 5Ze by virtue of the overlapping boundary claims on Georges Bank. The proposed action would generate two categories of impacts on the physical environment, one related to the presence of Canadian fishing vessels in part of the U.S. zone, and the other related to the act of fishing. The presence of Canadian vessels within the FCZ carries with it the potential for certain hazards such as collisions with other vessels and marine pollution. These potential - 75 - hazards exist whenever vessels of any nationality transit or fish in the U.S. FCZ. Compliance with the International Regulations for preventing Collisions at Sea (1972) , which have been incorporated into the domestic law of both countries, should minimize the potential for collision. The problem of marine pollution by fishing vessels in the FCZ is not addressed in U.S. law. Nevertheless, pollu- tion from these sources is considerably less threatening to the physical environment than marine pollution caused by larger vessels, particularly oil tankers. Potential impacts on the physical environment associated with the act of trawling or dredging by Canadian vessels under the Agreement include: gear conflicts with other fishermen, damage to marine structures such as under- sea communication cables, and disruption of sediments and bottom dwelling marine life. These potential impacts may also result from the activities of other foreign fishing vessels that presently fish in the FCZ under Governing International Fishery Agreements, as well as from the acti- vities of our expanding domestic fleet. Although access granted to Canadian vessels would be confined as noted, it would be on terms more liberal than those applicable to other foreign vessels fishing in the - 76 - FCZ. The activities of those other vessels are governed by the U.S. foreign fishing regulations; the activities of Canadian vessels would be governed by the Agreement provi- sions and by regulations applicable to U.S. vessels except in the Loligo squid fishery. In that fishery, Canadian vessels would have access for 10 years on terms more restrictive than those governing U.S. vessels, but somewhat less restrictive than those governing other foreign vessels, Most likely, Canadian vessels in the Lol igo squid fishery would be confined to the approximate areas of the present foreign fishing areas off the Mid-Atlantic states. Thus, although gear conflicts and damage to marine structures may be no greater as the result of Canadian access than as the result of access granted an equivalent number of other foreign vessels, it is possible such problems may arise over a broader area of the FCZ. To mitigate gear conflict problems, the Agreement calls for the establishment of gear avoidance regulations that would apply equally to U.S. and Canadian fishermen. In addition, potential damage to marine structures can be minimized by adequate notice of their location and through regulations concerning authorized fishing. Disruption to continental shelf sediments and bottom dwelling marine life from the use of bottom trawls and - 77 - riiedqes in certain fisheries can be ininimi zed , if necessary, by qear requlations. The specific environmental effects of tiie use of such gear are more appropriately the focus of the specific r.anaqei.ient plans for the various fisheries under the Aarecrr.ent. The potential in pacts of all of the above can be discounter; to some extent by the number of U.Ii. vessels that vvould leave the l;.S. zone to fish once aqain in areas Lnder undisputed Canadian fisheries jurisdiction. In 1977, more than 100 U.S. fishing vessels reported operatind during some part of the year in the Canadian zone. Since June 1978, these vessels have been confined to the U.S. zone, increasing the potential for impacts on the physical environment of the U.S. zone such as those described. Under the Agreement, it is anticipated that some, if not all, of these vessels again would operate in the Canadian zone. 2 . Biological Environment The proposed action would create a framework within which the United States and Canada would be able to coordi- nate fishery management, decisions for stocks of mutual - 7i interest. The Aqroeinent itself Flakes few irananenent decisions regarding these resources. It requires that total allowable catches be established annually based on the best scientific information available. It vests one country, the otlier, or both v;i th exclusive or frinaiy manaqoment responsibility for each stock covered. And it contains percentaoe shares to be a[ plied to the annual tag's to deterr.ine the amount each country n^.ay fish. Beyond these basic provisior\s, the Agreement leaves the development of specific m:anageinent programs to the country v.ith exclusive or primary management responsibility, or to tioth countries in the case of four stocks. These proqrajTis v/ould be developed in accordance with the Agree- ment's managem.ent principles which are patterned after the national standards for fishery management contained in the Fishery Conservation and ^.anagement Act of 1976. In the case of stocks managed p^rimarily by one country and those managed jointly, the Aoreement provides for dispute resolu- tion to guard agairist the possibility that deadlock may leave the stocks unprotected. The impact of this management framework on the biological environment v\ould be beneficial. Currently, the United States and Canada undertake independently to manage many stocks fished by both. For some, one country has - 79 - iir piemen ted a raanageiront " j^rogt erni v;hilt the othei tias riOt. For otiiets, neithei" country has yet developed inanaqenent prograiT'S. )-ccause neitlier countiy is b(5und by the reriula- tions oC the othei:, neither is able to establish TAC's. £or the stock?-. Instead, each now establishes TAG ' s only for its own fishermen. Even vvhere both countries seen' to agree on annual TAC s , they often disagree on the airiount each is entitled to take. The result in several instances has been actual catches that t.Kceed the totals both believe are sound . The Agreement would substitute a single TAC for TAC ' s adopted independently, and would require an annual TAC for each stock covered. Ihe entitlement [letcentage shares would resolve differences over what each country may take. Thus, risks of overfishing would be diminished, and stock rebuilding efforts v.ould have a reasonable opportunity to achieve the desired ends. Most importantly, the Agreement would assure that pressure to m.axim.ize short term uses of these resources will not be allowed to threaten long term product i vity . Fishery resources' can be managed v/ith various goals in mind. For instance, the ^:id-Atlantic Fishery Management Council is attempting to create significant future oppor- tunities for recreational fishermen in the Atlantic mackerel fishery. The optimum yield established in the Council's Atlantic mackerel plan reflects this decision by restricting current uses. Gn the other hand, the New England Council is attempting to tebuild cod and haddock stocks depleted in the past by overfishing, while mini- mizinq current economic dislocation among those dependent on these fisheries. As a result, the OY's established seek to balance these goals. A problem which both Councils now face, however, is that Canadian fishermen who fish the same stocks are under no obligation to observe the management measures adopted. The Councils' goals thus may or may not be realized. The Agreement would require that fishermen of both countries observe the m.anagement measures adopted for each stock. Under the Agreement the United States would have exclusive or primary management responsibility for all Georges Bank stocks except argentine, scallops (precise the Great South Channel), and cusk. Atlantic mackerel (TAG only), lobster (only in the boundary region, and only pending delimitation of the boundary), pollock and Georges Bank cusk would be managed jointly. The Agreement thus would not only provide for coordinated management, but would give the United States the exclusive or predominant say in how the majority of stocks in the U.S. zone are !1 - managed. buch a mariaqement role would be significantly qi cater than that the United States now enjoys since, at the present, its management decisions for the majority of these stocks can be ignored by Canadian fishermen. Specific n.anaqeinent programs developed for stocks in the Aqieerent will impact the biological environment most directly. As mentioned, however, these programs would be adopted in accordance v/ith the Agreement's m.anaqement principles only after it has entered into force. The Agreeii'ent ' s principal impact v/ould be its assurance that tag's v;ill be established, that both countries will be entitled to a certain percentage share, and that disagree- ments over management m.easures will not leave the stocks unprotected . The United States and Canada have both experienced the "tragedy of the commons" when important stocks of fish were available to all and pressure to maximize current uses was intense. In the 1960 's and 1970 's, attempts at fish- eries management were made by the International Commission for the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries (ICNAF) and through various bilateral agreements. Despite these efforts, stocks in the Georges Bank-Gulf of Maine area declined. Countries pat tic ipat ing in the fisheries v/ere unwilling to accept adequate restraint in the short term to assure long - 82 - term productivity. TAC's v.-ore set tcjo high tor certain species anr' not set at all for others. Tn addition, TAG ' s set for individual species did net alv/ays take sufficient account of tlie L^ycatch of those soecies taken incidentally ir directed fisheties tor other species. Ixperience under ICNAF reflects the har^'-ful impacts that can flow frcin il) intense corrpe tit ion among countries for shares of United resources, (2) too i^uch: emphasis on current uses of fishery resources at the expense of future uses, and (3) inadequate or incomplete panacen'ent systeirs. After extendinq their jurisdiction over fisheries to prevent further depletion of these resources, the United States and Canada now rnust agree on how shared resources are to be conserved and r.ianaged lest they repeat the " tragedy of the commons". The proposed action would provide principles and procedures for doina so. Because fisheries ranagement is a dynai^ic process, it must have the flexibility tc resfx^nd to changes in the biological status of the stocks and to profit from increased scientific knowledge. The Agreement provides in Article VII for anending annual management measures for Cateqory A stocks (those jointly managed) and Category B stocks (those where one country or the other has prim.ary management responsibility). buch amendments could be - 83 - implemented rapidly if, in light of unforeseen circum- stances, a stock is threatened with serious and immediate harm, or if there is an economic emergency in a fishery that can be alleviated without significant adverse effects on the conservation of the stock. Management measures for Category C stocks (those managed exclusively by one country or the other) could be amended at any time by the country with exclusive management authority. Tl-e Aqr f tner t ' 3 mandqeaient principles require that annual rfanaqoinerit measures be based on the best scientitic information available. This requirement v;ill assure that the countries profit trom increased scientific knowledge of the fisheries. In addition, tliese principles require that rr.anagoment measures take into account demonstrated degrees of stock and species interrelationships. This requireiTient would assure that the countries consider n^ananement measures not only in terms of their effect on a qiven stock, but on the relationship between that stock and the ecosystem, of which it forms a part. Should our expanding knov/ledge of such relationships increase to a point enabling the countries to implement entirely new manaqement strc^tegies, they would be able to do so by agreement at any time. !4 - The Ar!reerr:ent recognizes the need for flexibility to encouraqe innovative nianaqerrent techniques. For instance, r.anaqemcnt measures listed in Article XI, para- qraph 2, that may be adopted tor Category A and B stocks are permissive rather than obligatory. Article VIII specifically provides that the Parties may amend any pro- vision of the Annexes by agreement. It also allows the Con;mission to recom.mend such amendments to the Parties, including without limitation, the addition or deletion of stocks, the transfer of stocks from one Annex to another, and changes in fishing entitlements and access areas. If the tine limits or other administrative procedures set forth in the Agreement prove unsatisfactory, either Party may request a review and reneqot iat ion of such provisions after an initial 5-year period following entry into force of the Agreement. The m.anageiT.ent categories established in the Agree- ment would provide for graduated degrees of interaction betV7een the countries in nianaging fishery resources. Stocks appear in one category or another based on a number of factors. These include the degree to which a given stock, based on seasonal m.igration patterns, is found in the fishery conservation zone of one country or the other, how much interaction there appears to be between stocks, - 85 - where spawning grounds are located, and the degree to which fishermen of one country or the other have fished traditionally for a given stock. No set formula can be applied. Where possible, to facilitate management and to avoid the potential for disagreement as to conservation goals , stocks would be managed exclusively or primarily by one country or the other. Thus, for example, Atlantic cod in Division 5Y as well as Atlantic cod in Division 4W and Subdivision 4Vs are listed in Category C. Cod in these areas are basically localized. They can thus be managed as a unit in each of the two areas (Division 5Y and area 4VSW) independently. Although fishermen of the two coun- tries have operated for cod in both areas, the Parties agreed in the context of the negotiations to limit their entitlem.ent shares in each other's zone to very low per- centages (less than two percent in each case) . Thus, because cod stocks in these areas do not range significantly beyond them, because fishery management jurisdiction is not disputed, and because fishermen of each country would have limited interests in the zone of the other, management of these stocks need not involve a significant degree of coordination between the Parties. !6 - On tt)e ether hand, cod in Division 5:!, though relatively localised, is accessible to fishermen of both countries in thG boundary region on Georqes Bank. This factor , coupled with the interest of both countries in the 5Z cod stock as deivonstr ated by their past catches and as reflected in tlieir entitlenent shares, can be seen to recuire some rianaqeinent coordination LetVi^een therr . bnder the Aqreeriient, th.e 5Z cod stock is listed undei Category b. The United States would have primary manageiTient responsi- bility for this stock. The bnited states would thus develop nanageiueiit neasures tor tlie ^Z cod stock in accordance with the Agreenent's iTianagenent principles. Canada vould be able to object to the nanaqement measures adopted by the United States, but would be required to demonstrate that those measures are clearly inconsistent with the Agreement's manager.ient principles for them to be mod i f ied . Category A procedures would involve the greatest deqree of management cooperation between the two countries. These procedures would apply in whole or in part to those stocks in which both countries have significant interests. For instance, although most Atlantic mackerel winter off the U.S. coast in Areas 5 ana 6, a large number miigrate to the Canadian zone in sum.mer to spawn. The fishing pressure - 87 - appliec! by eithei" country to this species v.'itliin its exclusive fishery zone may allect it throughout its migra- tory range. Proper n^.anaaernent of Atlantic mackerel in Areas 3, 4, 5, and G can thus be seen to require a joint effort of the Parties. Unoer the /Agreement, fishermen of each country Vvould be authorized to harvest mackerel only in that country's zone, but both countries v-ouici agree in the Commission on the annual TAG for all four areas. Another example is that of cusk in Subdivision 5Ze. Unlike mackerel, this stock is not thouaht to range signi- ficantly betv/een the undisputed fishery zones of the tvvo countries. This factor alone might be thought to suggest that cusk in 5Ze should be managed according to Category E procedures. E^ut cusk in this area is currently available to fishermen of both countries in the boundary region and Canada's annual harvests of cusk in Subdivision 5Ze have been substantially greater over time than those of the United States. This is reflected in the countries' entitlement shares (Canada G6 percent; United States 34 percent). In balancing their interests in this stock, the Parties agreed that Category A procedures should govern the management of cusk in 5Ze. Regardless of the specific category in v/hich a stock appears, the Agreement, as mentioned, recognizes that - 88 - experience may demonstrate another category would be more appropriate to effective management of that stock. The countries would be able to vary them at any time by agree- ment, and the Commission would also be able to recommend am.endments . The proposed action represents some departure from traditional bilateral fishery agreem.ents with their limited management goals and lim.ited contributions to conservation. It would establish a comprehensive system for conserving a broad range of fishery resources. It v/ould have the flexibility necessary to evolve with increased scientific knowledge and developing theories of m.anagement. Above all, it would encourage long term resource productivity. - 89 - 3 . The Human Environment a. Introduction In enacting the Fishery Conservation and Management Act of 1976 Congress created a national program of conser- vation and management intended to realize the full potential of the Nation's fishery resources. Eight Regional Fishery Management Councils were created to develop and implement management plans for regional fisheries within the U.S. fishery conservation zone. The New England and Mid-Atlantic Councils, however, are placed in the difficult position of imposing restraints on U.S. fishermen in the interest of sound management, while having no control over Canadian fishermen fishing the same stocks. The Agreement seeks to resolve this problem by providing for coordinated manage- ment of the stocks in which both countries have an economic interest, consistent with the management principles of the FCMA, and with the full participation of the Regional Councils. With or without an agreement, efforts to manage or rebuild fully or over-exploited stocks would involve some degree of socio-economic dislocation. Effective stock management may require temporarily lower catch levels for some stocks than those of recent years, while others may be increased. One or both countries may thus experience - 90 - temporary socio-economic dislocations. Without an Agreement each country would be expected to act to minimize its own losses, and the result could be a combined rate of harvest higher than that which either side would individually recommend. Socio-economic dislocation in the present may thus be minimized, but only at the expense of future oppor- tunities. If both countries instead mutually agree to a rate of total harvest, both short-term impacts and long- term economic benefits will be shared. As described m detail in the following sections, the full potential of the fishery resource is much more likely to be realized, and overall socio-economic benefit to both Nations is expected to be greater in the long-term with the Agreement than without it. The proposed action would have both short-term and long-term impacts on the human environment, some of which can be quantified reliably while others cannot. For example, in 1977, the last full year of reciprocal fishing, more than 100 U.S. vessels reported operating all or part of the year in the Canadian zone. Since June 1978 Canada has excluded them. The proposed action would enable U.S. vessels to resume operations in the Canadian zone to con- tinue traditional fisheries. In 1980 the value of this access to U.S. harvesters is estimated at $5.1 million. - 91 - u O in c o n (J o c o o • +J I — J= f ■o -o u> 4rt b1 QJ ji; CO "■ ^.. •^ "r* ■^ > 4J 01 ei •^1 «*- U- 4^ 3 OJ r^ ■T3 T3 r^ XI 1 I/) C C •P* OJ x: C ro U a\ L. S- QJ ^ 4J •— t c C5 cs J- u cu W -o OXJ *■"*• c 0) O <_> lO 4-> tf) ro x: <: <: *r— in >, w ^s»^ *-> to to ro tn SD. CO •» U- U- .^ f- ^ (0 r^ -^ if- t— I «5 •a: r-H »— 1 (J •r* r-H s««^ • * o • o o • • o H; u o o o o o 4J 4-> 4J u. Ll. E Uu > *• • M LL. Lt. to 3 s- 3 VD o XI O 0) o 4J ■(-> 1/1 4^ CO CO +-> 4^ OJ O en Q. ro (O ro cri CT) ro ro J= • *^ O ns Oi o t— * *— « 4J 1— •. cc ■4-> *j J= 4-> 40 4-9 s c 4J c c c ■M c o o c c <♦- LD OJ - — . +J QJ QJ •P— o o 0) E E c E IT) ^— ^ E -a <: o to (t5 4-> ■1^ +-> ro ■M = ^v. 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CO ro i~ O O 0) <: ■a: I. •!-> «t «_> oo tJ l>0 «C «C a. CM o Q. 4-> ■M ■M «0 o r-4 I o U3 le > ro o ^ OJ CJ •-H o ■M . CO in CO am CM CVJ o ro--~ OI QJ s- s- «« 3 CD j<: .f- X UV4- .3 O •a- 4-> 0) to QJ 1/1 OJ * l/l C7> o c ■r~ "^ o I. CJ s- c QJ to ^C vo «4- 3 + o OJ t/) >- r>j hJ > tn un to c o •r- 4J U « s- (U c in to a. o ro u t-o ■a o o a> o X CM o o ^"^ ro C_J ^ «I CT> l- 11 -o QJ vo -o CO CM S •— ! 1 O o 4-> o QJ c 1- o ■^ 4J c O '-^ OJ QJ ^ to ••-> OJ o o s- J- Ll. 4-> o. Q. C ««v^ LJ o ro E ro rn 1/1 CM CVJ J-J lO **v> •^ c QJ CO CC QJ to r^ f^ 5 to 4.J ro • • 'l^ o O 3 c is •— ro u •r— • . rj -o o O i- ro o o c Q o --> ro c o o CJ ra < < 4-> CO t/1 to CO r>. U- li- i::. cn eC <. o t— ( O c_; u CVJ o <£> CM t— 1 NJ in X «3- tn m + X X ^— to 3 3 lO + > > q: in "S- •3- «3- o o ro QJ .^ .c i_ O to QJ O •^- 2jC ^— V- u r^ T3 ro o OJ y c Cil u u 3 O c o u en c 3 in »/) >- (/I Ol O s o ■!-> O 3 O S- .-I (J OJ ■!-> S- 3 O ■!-> X) C (O (D 4-> >, 1/1 I— C •!-> o c U Ol 10 en OJ c s- 1- a. E 3 •> in in in "o (O < — u a> Ol (O > CO c o -o (1) m lO X) (U > o c c o ■o (U to (O (U CO CO > CO ■«-> o c CO a to CO Xi 0) CO CO > CO O c c Ol E to m O) to m < CO o OJ t— ens CO i. o ID lO » OJ c o >, T3 C O) O in CO in ^ CO I - o >— CO J3 tJ CO •T— CO CO ■>-> > O CO -u O r>. C Ol c • to O) O) 3 tn o to j= rs. r^ 1 r^ IT) 1 VO m lO J= o j= 4-> u CO 4-> o CO o 0) Ol 0) OJ CO > co^^ c >— O-^ c S 1— o -c s o CJ -o o m o a; o CO O tn • ^ o CO tn •• J3 in 1 o lO 1 1 M f>H (U O) in r— 1 •— CO J3 J2 S CO to CO — > u: > CO CO o CO O +-> 4J CO 4-» 1— O IJ O CO c c -w p-« o ■M CO 4J ■«-> C •!-> c 0) o E r- to tn 1 in r^ to r^ Qj r^ o CO L. 3 O U CO -ii h- U i. o CTi o +-> p^ <<- in cn I— « CO to 4J + • « CO in t— -o s: o O) ^J o ■»-> O CO Q. O 3 -r- •> o-j= O OJ to o -o c 1— < CO o A C •.- •r- +J O CO 4-> •»(— j= a tn Ol i- OJT- o S •!-> O O CO O C c ••-> (1) 3 Q) O O >, to O) CO c— o: E >o (U I. > CO CO 3 CO c a; o s- Ol c ^ o o ■o o OJ ■t-' in CO 0) X) J3 *J >l 3 CO XI E • » to O ••- O JZ O ■!-> o^~ ro O o I o l_3 T-t < CM ■!-> in C CJ OJ J= to O OJ •<-> S- CO o. o c O) o a o J3 O O oo c >. in •— CO C ^ o o c <: Ol H- OJ QJ ' CO s_ tn s- OJ CO 3 > x: o QJ O 3 O) CO O O) x: CO QJ .» Q) O I— > E 2: CO o O CO X3 O r^ O I >, •• O CD •=r r«~ E «3- cn i-H r— I ^-^ O) > O QJ OJ < > .— I— •-- 4-) S- +-> O OJ C — S QJ S- O in ■*-> ■ — Q) to i- OJ o o. i- to 0) 4-> CO e o Q. CO + ■ c hsl 10 un r— CD <. c oo Ul I. s o o; s: o 00 o o c 00 v- QJ « lo c E CO •r- ca *j in in OJ OJ cn o OJ c o c o "O qjs- CO CO cQx: >- 00 o OJ in in CO o o esi o o CSJ o ro "a- OJ in + X X QJ > ro m in in in «3- in ^ ro lO + in «o ro lO + OJ + fvi i>j in in in '—' m X UJ OJ (n ^ 1 u I/- - 0) ^ 1/1 •r- 3 ^ (_; "3? QJ c CJ cn T3 S- C O) 3 X o ■•-» •_ o tu X -O O) 3 «— CT — I/O o, OJ s_ s_ O OJ X *-■ i/i to *«- ^ S- O o — TABLE II - (cont'd) - 93 - V Subject to change as new information becomes available. y CAFSAC=Canadian Atlantic Fisheries Scientific Assessment Committee. y Constant recruitment is defined as a constant, average number of new recruits to the fish stock becoming available to the fishery each year. Even though the actual number may vary from year to year around this value, the long-term average v/culd be maintained. Fq ^ is that level of fishing at which the estimated increase in total catch that would be produced by adding an additional unit of fishing effort is lO percent of the increase produced by adding the same unit of fishing effort to the fishery during its initial phases of exploitation. (Fishing at Fq_^ may not produce the maximum possible yield in any particular year, but it reduces the risk of overfishing and stock depletion due to unexpected declines in recruitment- of young fish to a stock or other unforseen developments. ) 4/ MSY=Maximum sustainable yield. 5/ TAC=Total allowable catch. ^— Subiru fteuneary CANADA 2:»J 3.79 STATEIBCE) - 94 - based on projected short term total allowable catches (TAC's) and 1978 U.S. average ex-vessel prices. Although Canadian vessels would also regain access to the U.S. zone, the value of that access is more difficult to assess since, with the exception of Loligo squid, Canadian vessels currently have access to all species covered by the A.greeraent, either in the Canadian zone or in the boundary region on Georges Bank. Other cautions concerning the reliability of available data, its completeness, or problems with quantification and forecast techniques are contained in the text or in the footnotes to the tables, and should be carefully noted, b. Short Term Impacts Short term impacts, both positive and negative, would result primarily from changes in the supply of fish available to harvesters from the stocks covered. Processor and con- sumers would also be affected by the proposed action's effect on supply, but to a lesser extent than harvesters because of greater substitution possibilities. The proposed action would affect short term supply by requiring that the Councils or the Commission establish total allowable catches (TAC's) annually for each stock, and by requiring that each country fish only up to its entitlement percentage share. To evaluate the potential impact of these requirements on supply two com- parisons are helpful (1) whether the recent total catch from - 95 - a given stock is above or below the potential long term annual average yield, and (2) whether the recent U.S. catch is more or less than the share that would be available to the United States under its entitlement. The comparison between the recent total catch and the potential annual average indicates whether a stock is being exploited above or below the level thought consistent with long term resource productivity. If above, long term produc- tivity may or may not be threatened depending on the extent of the overage and the length of time catches at such levels are sustained. The potential annual yield from the stock represents an average that in any given year or years can be exceeded to some extent, provided the average in the long term is main- tained. Nevertheless, where the recent total catch is signif- icantly above the potential annual average, the TAG under the proposed action might be established at a level lower than the recent total catch in the interest of resource conservation. This action would reduce the supply available to all harvesters in the short term without reference to entitlements. Where the .recent catch from a stock is lower than the potential annual average, opportunities exist for expansion. In some cases this expansion could take place rapidly simply by increasing effort; in others, however, particularly where stock abundance has been affected by past - 96 - overfishing, expansion would be more gradual to allow for stock rebuilding. The comparison between recent U.S. catch and the share of the recent total that would be available to the United States under its entitlement offers a rough approximation of whether U.S. harvesters would be likely to benefit from or be adversely affected by the proposed action in the short term. This second comparison must be made in conjunction with the first since it is not accurate in all cases to assme that tag's under the proposed action could or would be set at the level of recent total catches, as mentioned. Table III makes both comparisns for each stock covered by the proposed action with the exception of offshore lobster in Subdivision 5Ze (discussed with Other Fisheries). Table III demonstrates that short term supplies available to harvesters are unlikely to be affected by the proposed action for the majority of stocks covered. In most cases, the shares available to the United States would be somewhat greater under the proposed action than recent U.S. shares of the total catch from the stocks. For five stocks, however, this is not the case. These are: scallops in 5Ze, pollock in 4VWX+5, redf ish in 5, cusk in 5Ze, and white hake in 5. Three of these stocks, 5Ze scallops, 4VWX+5 pollock, and 5 white hake were exploited in 1978 at levels above the potential annual average. Overages - 97 - t— 1 *-^ CD a -H V. tn 4J TO OJ C 0) u 0^ l- ■H iJ tJ l-i o o m ^ \D ro O -J- CNJ rsi CM N-^ r- 00 "^-' ^.^ (C r- tn 01 a; c^ OJ 00 o ^ u fl c 4J X > ^ CO o OJ > X u X ±J E TO TO w u Oi /-v xj 0) 1 to y; 4-1 fl3 00 in r^ y-^ )M OJ s 00 r^ rg 1-H in \£> in -3- 1— 1 m sD O \0 X> rH 1-H 1-H u j: o 00 1 o o ^1 o O csj|0 fn d .M m OC' ^ f^ r~i|0 O CM m d d d n a; f-N. •o a^ «— 1 ■•— ' .— ( (Q O •w in 4J tC S c -( sD O f^ d •-H in fn|o pn ON ri d d c*^ C 00 u CC ^ — < CNJ CM rg -H i-H (U r^ c CTN o H CO • 4-) tJ 5 CD •H u .. " 4J . . . o; OJ tfi w s: CD 0) CO ■u c U O c u ^ 4J o ^ C (C X •- « CO ^ 0^ ^ 00 1^ ^ r^ m, O (^ in in .-H On o 00 CM CM C •H cc u ,-4 ... ^—v r-» ■u 1 m (Ni r- r^ CO cN)-a- o CM O CN d r-) ^ r--. CO o in d d ■ 01 -u ^ &. ^ X u 4J TO u .-H TO 1 rsi ec <-^ o> »3- CO fn ON r^ in c r^ in in c^ ^ O CM CO 00 c 1 d 00 3- in sD r- c in in 00 v£ "^ o •J- d r-> ^ O 1 CO ^ .H (N rH m CM CN m <■ f~i rH *-H a-" CO r^ a> y-i X X u 4-1 to (J 1 o o o O c o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o .-H TO 1 ^ *i5 O d r^ M in m in > cc 1 ^ in OJ *3- in m o •^ IB bO CL en ^ 0) ^ X ^ N X c o > X >- rj u t-i u en 1-1 TO tn J^ ■H 1-H sj >3- in in o at OJ X OJ o IM •T3 ^ rH Uh > j^ 4-t M TO 13 •T3 tj f-H TD 1-H ■o tn •H 4J OJ U CO TO O 0) •H 01 3 i C/l X W ^ X S a. CC cn cc U - 98 - i/*i r^ CM C -HO cc in c^ cc O .-1 IT) ^-1 m vD ,— ( p-i r-^ ro 4J 0) bO k' •<-i c o QC at Vm a C ^ u U-l a. tn 3 OJ (C 1-1 11 4J 3 3 at Vi XI u^ O k. n to at at 4-1 4^ ,-^ :* e K c a* a; > 4J u u OJ u c E h-i 1— ' o ■^ o •H at »^ ^ IM C X QJ u ftf ■H E at 4J ^ tn OJ ^ tr at k- o ■u XJ V. n e )- u P tt 01 ■4.* P^ u 14-1 en u-> ■u to X >, ^^ at cc at at CO 3 J 4-1 CO 4-10 0) &0 -^ X o 3 E r- ^ ■ O O Ji CT^ 4-1 J V- U <-< >s C 4J U- C •-( 0) \£> CD -H 01 + O .C CO K < in nH c -H oc at C 4-- •" o c ^ a E c X ^ »- "O 0^ r^ <■ r^ m CJN r-l CO >C >J ml o o o o o o O r*- o o o o -J CSJ 1— 1 O 1- CM CN en -» ^ * 01 + + ts; c^ m m in £ so u + IC -3- vO + CJ s •H + + in i_l ? U-l cn iri cn ■O o X •» c >« u 3 dJ •M ^ 0) O 1-4 ^ e u •-4 O OJ •H u M U 4J c kd •c ■T3 X 01 01 tH (fi tlO j: 3 3 u-l kl u o- cr < O W to o O O T^ U- Z 4-1 >. 4-1 »*- 4J C . -^ at > E W -H 01 3 4-t ^H U U 4-* ;fl H 0) 01 W (t C U 0) E U O Ot en X OJ Qj at t-i 1-1 X t-< 4J o at 4-1 1-1 ex E o oc Vi c u c to •.-< to at u -^ ot *4-l X 4J < 4-1 4-» 4-1 H -^ CO • bO E 4-t VI 1-. C E -H t/: • QJ o v- >-< 3 X -^ at •O 4-) 4J "O Ot v^ n OC c 4-> o )-< C 4^ (0 iH l4-i iH t-l C >s 4J O U s tn i-i CJ X < o> at 0) en E-> GJ -H X -^ X 4J 01 *4- at rH 4J 1- 1H (0 X ^ C «*- 4-1 to 1-1 3 4J Ui at 4-1 ot 3 Ui ot O -H > ot V j^ u cr. •r- Ita cr 0) •o u c o c X tn a> t-i I*. c X 4^ E O 01 -r^ U u a OC 3 -H at 3 U > C u (0 q; (t C 4J 01 tH C C X O U 3 X X tn cr o 4J tn -H -H ot 3 u-l ^ )-< c at to 'i^ o oi) .-I D. E -H TO TOE 4J 4J CO - - U C O U • C (0 OJ -H TH 1-t TO tH OJ -^ ' TO 00 * 1- 0. 4-* u r^ Qi tn 4j i-» 4-( CT' CJ tn u 1— ' ^ -H at 4.) 3 X > C C O 4-1 -o cl cr. t. 4^ E X 3 O C "C C -D C C 4-1 at T- 3 U X ^ X OJ CJ 4-> Q. 4J E (0 m tJ 00 • >N m r- X O at 4J W >^ TO at E <■ 3 at o X c 3 tn •H -H tn ui 4-1 -H OJ TO C — * CJ =) X r-v 01 X cr E ^ Ot T3 OJ .-H OJ V- 3 X OC o H < 3 to F TO |M cr. Cl c to QJ 01 u- c U X r u ^ c TO 4-* 2: TO ^^ o. >^ TO tr, "=5 OJ X X X O 4-) •a C • 2 a> tn X c OJ Ps TO c ^ X U ^ tj 3 O X 01 "O 4-1 tn a Oi Ot o tn c tn t^ c Vi-I TO 13 »- E Ot 1- tn q; TO ^4 u •H u -H Ot nr; 3 w c >o- CC c U Ot •H r- c •^ -D TO cr 4-1 fc 01 4^ t-> tn u k- tn TO TO 01 TO c at CL 4J > C lu tn • 4-> •n TO •H X !-• 01 X X tn O X 4-' 4J -H tn TO 3 V4 tn th O C u -u a; 1—1 >^ o t4 n OJ u 4_1 X at oc c 14-1 4J ^ OJ tn t-> ll 4J OJ to 0) o X u c; E X a c c 4-1 c at TO r. to tn X CJ h 4J TO c 13 kt o <4-| TO 01 •D u-l *H X u Ot U 4J Ot X OJ a> u X tn at X tn (— 1 h ai ct: TO E \*-> X > > C re X 4^ CO ot 4-1 rn tn r- 4-t o< f— I OJ 0^ < =3 E X c T- a> t-i a 3 3 Cl.*4H .-H ^ C 01 o E U C 01 at .-H 1m 01 4J •D TO 4-t —I C 3 4-t OJ O TO 3 ^ cn 4.1 4-1 tn -H CJ 4J 4J OJ k-l TO 01 at 4J .H "D tn tw c 3 •O OC OJ c m 4-1 -H 01 •H X 4-1 c tn TO ^ -H 4-1 U-l to 01 oc tn < OJ VI O OJ C X X -U 3 00 C o; ^ uh 6C 3 t- a c c o eic 3 «*-. C o — e T3 X -I C •" X N| 4J en cQ OJ C to •s X X X 4J 0> ot X 4-1 ■— 1 X c u E c X TO 5 u u "3 u-> at 4-1 tn CO at ot t^ 3 X X m tn 4J u at IM u O CO o 4^ CJ c imt "D .-H Ot TO -H >. to 3 .-H o 4^ u 01 Q. u ^ a X a .— ( 4J -c to U OJ tn TO Oi 4J 3 u-l a cn Ot tn c c u I- ot ■D E >s C ■u OJ c TO 0) k. 1-1 4-1 •H 0) to > a 3 c c C" Oi 0) oc -u u c c TO c TO 4-1 E t-4 4-) in 3 3 o X X TO c c Ui 01 4-1 X •o u c •?-( >. u-l c Ui o 4J 0> X X X CO 4-1 oc to u •H u-l TO TO u-l a u >, E at (t •H tn 1-1 E u at 01 >. CO ■u "oi u 1- to u-> 01 X u-l G > o C 3 •D t-H TO CO o >, O c X X C to 4J CJ E TO E 01 E OJ CJ u w> CI c U-. •H tn TO c 4J 4-i Ot k. at TO E o 4-4 •D u Ot Ot "en 01 X a 1-4 tn at E X -H X O TO U-l 4-1 CJ c 4-1 c ■H TO TO •H > X 01 TO 4J • Ot i-( XI H C 11 t-i ^ •H a CJ 01 o tn X 4J 4-> at 4j c to 4J < at -H TO at X U k4 4-t . U) l4 -u < >- at 01 o 4-1 4-1 a> u-l CO li X X o 4-1 tn U •^ CO u c O. 4J OJ >^ -H Ii •H U T) J_l 3 c 3 TO c D. •V T) U- -H TO OJ nr OJ 4-> 4-1 X 3 0) u X t; TO •H X TO 4J TO O tM X 4J f— 1 X OJ •w > ^ 1/ ^ CA J= •D u u •o CO c u cc 0) » OO CO CCl u. Ui z 01 2 > < k' 0) CO c c 01 c IS < tr 01 01 ^ ja u to 01 c £ tn CO 4-1 b. 01 4J H u 1 o or ;r c (; 0; j: u CO >% ■H X 4.1 B •D OJ OJ c o u OO 01 c c •rt 3 00 OJ OJ -I oc 4J 6 1^ 3 O 4-1 O < CO g -3 " e < to o CJ o c to T3 >^ • 0. M u OJ •3 ••H 01 C E CO X ^ CO ^ 4-j X tn -H to tH •3 TH to OJ [b -^ C O -I c 4-1 V. to OJ X OO X u r^ tn u c^ TH QJ -H u. r OO < O C -3 TH UH OJ iJ -H X C to T- tn t4 C -D -- CO k4 ^ CO 4J 01 TH 3 c "3 C • tJ >-H .. B, K C 01 OJ to o X T4 O iJ 4-1 v^ E 01 CO u p^x: —. TH X y; i- TH V- lU •u b- c o> en ^ OJ u OJ TH C > CO I H-I X to 01 CI B iLJ oc 4J TJ to kH a, 4j »-4 >s OCX c tH -o to QJ 3 -u 3 •3 X 01 TH - 99 - ranged from slight in the case of pollock and white hake to significant in the case of scallops. Thus, the potential decrease below the 1978 U.S. catch could be more substantial in the short term than that shown in the table if conserva- tion requirements under the proposed action resulted in a TAG less than the recent total catch in these fisheries. The potential decrease in supply available to U.S. harvesters of white hake in 5 could be recouped by an increase in the supply of white hake available to them in 4VWX. The decrease in the redfish supply available from Area 5 would also be more than offset by corresponding increases in the redfish supply available to the U.S. in areas 4VWX , 4RST, and 3-0. The potential decrease in the supply of 5Ze cusk (100 tons) could be offset somewhat if the TAG for cusk were set at, rather than below the potential annual average level. There is no indication that management concerns would preclude doing so. Significant decreases that would not be offset by increases elsewhere would be likely only for scallops in 5Ze and pollock in 4VWX+5. It is difficult to determine whether the potential decrease in the pollock fishery would be as substantial as that shown, however, since U.S. pollock land- ings in 1978 may have been augmented to some extent by misreported catches of other species. - 100 - Pollock Fishery Pollock are generally harvested by mobile otter trawl gear, by gillnets, and by line trawls. In 1977, some 600 vessels landing fish in New England ports reported using otter trawls. Sixty-three vessels reported using gillnets while 23 reported using line trawls. The average vessel in the current otter trawl fleet was built 26 years ago, has an average of 66 gross registered tons, and carries a crew of four. The average gillnetter and line trawler are con- siderably smaller (45 and 23 GRT respectively) and younger (18 and 19 yeras old respectively) and carry smaller crews (usually 3). In 1977 pollock landings accounted for 3.2 percent of the total revenues to otter trawlers in New England. By port, only in Gloucester and Boston did landings of pollock by otter trawlers exceed 3 percent of total revenues (6.5 percent in Gloucester; 10.2 percent in Boston). In comparison, 1977 pollock landings accounted for 34.4 percent of total revenues to gillnetters in New England. Three- fourths of the gillnetters active in 1977 landed their catches in Maine ports. In York County and in Portland and Portland County pollock landings accounted for about 30 percent of total revenues in 1977. In Massachusetts, in Gloucester and on the South Shore pollock landings accounted for 20.2 percent and 12.5 percent of total revenues to gillnetters in 1977. - 101 - In addition to otter trawlers, gillnetters and line trawlers, an unknown number of small "under tonnage" vessels (vessels which carry no Guard documentation) account for between 15 and 20 percent of pollock landings. These vessels predominantly use line travels (62.4 percent) and gillnets (22.3 percent). Processors of domestic origin pollock are located primarily in Maine and Massachusetts. Most process a variety of other fresh fish species in addition to pollock. Many are relatively small, labor-intensive, family-type establishments, NMFS unpublished data for 1976 indicate that 53 New England plants processed some quantity of pollock. The majority of these (37) produced fresh raw fillets. The next largest number (9) produced frozen raw fillets. The impact on harvesters and processors of a potential reduction in the supply of 4VWX+5 pollock depends on (1) the extent of the reduction, and (2) their ability to substitute other species or other sources for pollock supplies from 4VWX+5 at current levels. The impact on otter trawlers would be less significant than the impact on gillnetters or line trawlers since otter trawlers, except perhaps in Gloucester and Boston, harvest pollock largely as a bycatch in other groundfish fisheries. Otter trawlers in this sense would be affected primarily by any bycatch limits introduced. Gillnetters and line trawlers, on the other hand, might have - 102 - to shift some effort to other fisheries. Opportunities would seem to exist for doing so, particularly in the red hake fishery although market incentives are not as great. Processors would have two possible options if faced with reduced supplies of 4VWX+5 pollock. (1) process other species, or (2) obtain raw materials from other sources, probably imports. If raw materials were obtained from imports, processors would probably find it necessary to change the product forms produced from raw fillets fresh and frozen to sticks and portions. Currently U.S. proces- sors who produce sticks and portions rely almost entirely on imports of frozen blocks and slabs. This alternative would be available to the larger processors but would probably not be available to the smaller, family-type establishments. Scallop Fishery The traditional scallop vessel is equipped with two iron dredges that are dragged across the bottom simultaneously brought up one at a time and dumped on deck. Scallops are usually shucked on board where the edible adducter muscles or "meats" are washed, packed in 40-pound bags, and iced. The remaining shells, undersized scallops and viscera are discarded overboard. In addition to these "traditional" vessels, numerous smaller vessels use commercial trawls to harvest scallops. Many keep the whole scallop and unload - 103 - at ports equipped to shuck on land. Very small scallops are often processed in this kind of operation. The traditional Nevv Bedford type scalloper is between 70 and 100 feet long and averages about 149 GRT, although the trend is toward larger vessels. It carries a crew of 9 to 11 and makes 20 to 25 trips per year, each averaging between 8 and 10 days. In recent years the fishery has taken place in two areas: tlie Mid-Atlantic grounds off New Jersey and on Georges Bank. On Georges Bank itself, two areas have been important scallop grounds: south western and the northeast parts of the Bank. U.S. fishermen developed the Georges Bank scallop fishery well before the Second World War. Canadian fisher- men began scalloping on Georges Bank about 1951, although the United States dominated the fishery until 1965. About that time, many U.S. scallopers shifted their effort to the newly discovered Mid-Atlantic grounds. The U.S. scallop fleet is divided between New England based vessels and vessels based in the Mid-Atlantic area and south to North Carolina. New England vessels accounted for 67 percent of U.S. landings in the period 1975-77. Of this amount, 65 percent was harvested by dredgers while about 2 percent was harvested by otter trawlers. In the same period, Mid-Atlantic vessels accounted for 33 percent of U.S. - 104 - landings of which 20 percent was harvested by dredgers while 13 percent was harvested by "netters". In the 1975-77 period, 36 percent of the U.S. catch came from the two areas on Georges Bank while 64 percent came from the Mid-Atlantic grounds. New England based vessels accounted for 100 percent of the Georges Bank catch and 48 percent of the Mid-Atlantic catch. The proposed action would extend only to the Georges Bank scallop fishery. The Mid-Atlantic fishery is beyond the scope of the Agreement and will be managed exclusively by the United States in accordance with any fishery management plan developed by the Fishery Management Councils. Nevertheless, because the Georges Bank scallop fishery yields a significant percentage of total U.S. scallop land- ings, any decrease in the supply of scallops available to U.S. harvesters in the Georges Bank scallop fishery would have a significant impact on the human environment, particu- larly on New England based scallop dredge operators. Such a potential decrease would also be significant in view of recent information concerning scallop abundance in the Mid-Atlantic area and on the western side of Georges Bank. The 1978 scallop assessment prepared by the NMFS Northeast Fisheries Center indicated that for the intermediate period ahead scallop abundance in these areas could be expected to decline as the strong 1972 year-class - 105 - was fished out since no strong year-classes had recruited in these areas. Preliminary 1979 data support that conclusion. Recent higli yields have been the result of a single good year-class (1972) which was observed throughout the three principal areas in which the scallop fishery is conducted; i.e., the Mid-Atlantic, the Georges Bank, and the Northern Part on Georges Bank. As mentioned, recruitment prospects now are poor in the Mid-Atlantic and Great South Channel areas. Even if a good year-class materialized in these areas, it would require about three years to develop to a harvestable stage. Also significant is the fact that many new vessels have entered the scallop fishery in recent years, probably in response to the dramatic increase in the price of scallops. In 1974, 34 U.S. vessels reported dredging for scallops; by 1977 that number had risen to 155. Under the proposed action, U.S. scallopers would face a significant decrease in the supply of scallops available to them on Georges Bank, as shown in the table, even if the total catch at the 197B level could be maintained. The nine percent increase in the U.S. 1979 total Georges Bank scallop catch over 1978 was the result of a 45 percent increase in effort, as shown in Figure 6. Further concen- trations of U.S. effort in the northeastern part of Georges Bank combined with continued Canadian effort at current Figure 6 11000 -, 10000- 9000 8000 7000- 6000 5000- 4000- 3000- 2000- 1000- 75 CPUE (MT/DAY FISHED) 75 76 77 78 79 ^ 76 ' EFFORT (DAYS FISHED) CATCH (METRIC TONS) I 77 78 I 79 YEAR U.S. SEA SCALLOP CATCH, EFFORT, AND CATCH PER UNIT EFFORT (CPUE) Subdivision 5Ze Data source: NOAA/NMFS, Northeast Fisheries Center. 1979 Data provisional. 3668 3-80 STATE( RGE) 106 - 107 - levels may exceed the levesl conducive to recovery of the scallop stock in the short term, and may also have more far-reaching adverse effects than have thus far been realized. The impact of a decrease in the scallop supply available to U.S. harvesters on Georges Bank would primarily affect scallopers in Massachusetts ports, particularly the larger vessels (over 125 GRT) in New Bedford and Provincetown , medium size vessels (61-125 GRT) in New Bedford and Sandwich, and smaller vessels (less than 60 GRT) in New Bedford, provincetown. Sandwich, and Barnstable and Dukes Counties. Conversion of such vessels for operations in other fisheries would be a possibility, but not without substantial costs. It is estimated, for example, that the cost of con- verting a large scallop vessel could run as much as $100,000. Since most scallops harvested in Subdivision 5Ze are processed at sea, a reduction in the available supply from this area would have little impact on land based processors. Consu- mers could be affected by a possible increase in the price of scallops, although supply would probably not be affected because of import possibilities. Other Fisheries Because of 1978 total catches in certain other fisheries exceeded the estimated potential annual average yield and there is sufficient price incentive to maintain catches at - 108 - those levels, it is possible that management decisions taken under the proposed action would impose certain restraints in the interest of long-terra productivity. This would decrease supplies available to harvesters in these fisheries as well. Four such stocks can be identified frora the table: herring in 5Y, cod in 4VsW and 5Y , and haddock in 4X. Whether or not such decisions are made would depend on the social, economic and other relevant considerations taken into account in the decision-making process. Decisions with respect to herring and cod in 5Y in any event would be made by the United States; those with respect to cod in 4VsW and haddock in 4X would be made by Canada. With respect to other species, access to the U.S. zone would enable Canadian vessels to operate over a broader area but, as mentioned, the value of that access except in the Loligo fishery cannot readily be determined since those vessels could approximate or exceed their entitlements in the absence of the Agreement by increasing their effort in the boundary region or in the Canadian zone. Loligo Fishery In 1980, the value of Loligo squid that would be avail- able to Canada in the U.S. zone is estimated at $3.9 million. (Based on the average ex-vessel U.S. price of Loligo squid squid in 1979, as used to assess poundage fees paid by foreign vessels operating in the U.S. zone in 1980.) However, - 109 - this direct benefit to Canada does not equate to a direct cost to the United States, since 70 percent of the Loligo squid in the U.S. zone is currently surplus to estimated U.S. harvesting capacity. In 1978 U.S. fishermen harvested 640 tons of squid, although the optimum yield was established at 44,000 tons. In 1979 Loligo squid, worth approximately $29.8 million was made available for harvest by foreign nations other than Canada in the U.S. zone. Based either on actual or estimated U.S. harvests, there is substantial room for U.S. fishermen to expand in this fishery even with Canada's 10-year 9 percent entitlement under the Agreement. While the United States eventually may harvest 91 percent of the Loligo squid in its zone and be in a position to export some 40,000 tons annually, it is unliKely Canada, with 9 percent or 3,960 tons, will affect either the world price or the ability of U.S fishermen to market their catches overseas. Although Canada has considerable Illex squid in its zone, differences in price commanded by the two species suggest that Illex is less preferred than Loligo and that it may not be a direct substitute in the market place. Lobster Data with respect to lobster catches in area 5Ze are incomplete since many lobsters are caught in trawling operations, as opposed to those caught by means of fixed gear, are not reported. As a result, available data from - 110 - this offshore fishery do not adequately reflect actual catches. Until the maritime boundary is established the Agreement provides that fisherm.en of each country may fish for lobster in the disputed portion of Subdivision 5Ze with no expansion of their directed fisheries for this stock. Thus, since available supply would be maintained at recent levels, no adverse impact is likely to result in the short term from the proposed action. It should also be noted that, based on 1977 figures*, the fishery resources affected by the Agreement**, in relation to all fishery resources, comprise not more than ten percent of the fish landed and ten percent of the total value of the fisheries in the New England and Mid-Atlantic States. (See figure 7) . *The m.ost recent year for which state-by-state statistics are available. **''Other Groundfish" are not included as "species affected"' by the Agreement because the U.S. entitlement is 99% and the U.S. has exclusive management authority for this cate- gory in the U.S. zone. Figure 7 PERCENTAGE OF SPECIES AFFECTED BY THE AGREEMENT* RELATIVE TO TOTAL 1977 LANDINGS AND VALUE BY STATE Total Landingi in Thousands of Pounds Total Value in Thousands of 1977 U.S. Dollars I ^ Parcent Subi«ct ^ To Trsatv £^ -60 S o / ^ / •"Other Groundfish" are not shown as species affecied by the Agreement because the U.S. entitlement is 99% and the U.S. has exclusive management authority *or this category in the U.S. zone. Data source: U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA, NMFS Fisheries of the United States 1978, Current Fisheries Statistics No 7800. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1979. Tabulation: NMFS Statistics Branch NE. 3660 3-80 STATE(RGE) - 112 - c. Long Term Impacts Assessing the long term socio-economic impacts likely to result from the proposed action is difficult since the Agreement does not establish specific socio-economic policies. Rather, it seeks to create a framework within which effective management of living resources can take place. The implemen- tation of management policy will be the on-going responsibility of both Parties, either through their respective fisheries management authorities in the case exclusive and primary management responsibility (Categories C and B) , or through the Commission in the case of joint management (Category A), consistent with the provisions of the Agreement. The future decisions and actions of these authorities are impossible to predict, since they are likely to be affected by social and economic factors and future events unknowable at present. Biological analyses in fisheries management simply establish underlying resource productivity. Normally that productivity will support a range of management alternatives. Within the range economic, social, and other human considera- tions will determine the most acceptable or desirable combination of current and future uses. For example, with respect to depleted stocks, rebuilding efforts can be under- taken at various rates of speed. They can be maximized as the Regional Councils are attempting to do in the case of Atlantic mackerel and Georges Bank herring, or effected more - 113 - gradually as the TJew England Council has chosen to do in the case of Atlantic groundfish. Thus, specific harvest levels in any given year depend not only on the biological status of the stocks but also on management decisions made in light of social and economic circumstances. Since it is impossible to predict exactly which combi- nation of alternative management decisions will be implemented in the future, particularly in the long term, a precise valuation of long term socio-economic impacts cannot be made with the information available at present. It is possible, however, to make some qualified assumptions, and then, based on the best information available, to estimate the relative distribution of potential long term economic benefits under the provisions of the Agreement. The principal benefit of the proposed action would be its assurance of long term resource productivity, and evaluation of the long term impacts on the human environment should focus on how each country might benefit from that productivity. To do so, it is necessary to project what long term resource productiv- ity may offer in terms of annual harvests from the stocks. Although scientific knowledge of the fisheries affected by the Agreement is less than complete, estimates can be made of the potential average annual yields that may be sus- tainable over the long term from the various stocks. The estimates listed in Table II are based on the best current - 114 - scientific knowledge of the fisheries, and assume rebuilding of several stocks as well as effective conservation and management of all stocks. Based on existing knowledge of resource dynamics and past observations of the effects of various rates of exploi- tation on resource abundance. Table IV projects the average annual harvesting potential thought consistent with the long term resource productivity from stocks covered by the Agreement, Because these potential levels are averages, in any given year or years actual harvests may exceed or fall below them, provided the average itself is maintained over time. Given the management uncertainties involved, simultaneous maximiza- tion of yields for all stocks covered by the Agreement is not likely, and may not even be biologically possible. For the purposes here, however, the simplifying assumption is made that simultaneous maximization can be achieved. By applying each country's percentage-share entitlements to these potential harvest levels it is possible to estimate (1) the extent to which existing levels differ from potential levels, and (2) the relative distribution of benefits under the Agreement at these potential levels. Estimating the value of these potential harvests in the long term presents a more difficult problem. Since, for the most part, the potential catch levels shown in Table IV represent significant increases beyond existing levels, it - 115 - is unrealistic to use current prices to evaluate future harvests because of the elasticity of prices in response to increased or decreased supply. On the other hand, it is not possible to project future prices at such levels without making so many assumptions about demand variables as to defeat the reliability of the exercise. Valuing shares of shares of potential harvests using 1978 prices would be inaccurate in forecasting actual values at these potential levels since price is a function of numerous variables. To make any prediction of actual future prices would require separate sets and subsets of assumptions about each variable, each set and subset making the end result more tenuous and less reliable than the last. However, assuming that the values of the various species in relation to each other remain approximately the same over time, valuing potential shares at average 1978 ex-vessel prices illustrates relative benefits to each country. Even so, existing relative values of the various species are themselves likely to be affected by demand and supply in the market place, but exactly how they will be affected is impossible to predict. Therefore, the long term values estimated below should be taken only as a general indication of potential changes in relative distri- bution of benefits, and not as a forecast of projected actual revenues. - 116 - It is also-assumed for the purpose of this analysis that the entitlement shares provided in the Agreement would remain the same over the long term. In reality, of course, the Agreement provides for adjustment of shares at ten year intervals, consistent with the boundary adjudication. That outcome is impossible to predict at this time. Finally, it is assumed that U.S. and Canadian fishermen would increase fleet capacity and effort to the point that their respective entitlement shares would be fully utilized. Shares values are computed using 1978 average U.S. ex-vessel prices, and potential harvests are compared with 1978 base year harvest levels, except where noted. The stocks covered by the Agreement can conveniently be divided into three categories shov;n in Table IV; 1. Those which are located primarily in the undisputed Canadian zone , comprising about 42 percent of the tonnage and 31 percent of the value of the potential long term annual harvest of all stocks covered by the Agreement. 2. Those which are located primarily in the undisputed U.S. zone , which comprise about 8 percent of the potential annual tonnage and 11 percent of the potential value, and 3. Those which range significantly into or across the boundary region and comprise the remaining 50 percent of the potential annual tonnage and 58 percent of the value. 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The potential annual average harvest level shown is the midpoint between the possible range (90-104,000 MT) identified in the Pelagic Subcommittee Report (78/5) of the Canadian Atlantic Fisheries Scientific Assessment Committee as the 1979-86 estimated range. 2/ Entitlements for cod in Area 4X apply only to cod located offshore in the portion of Area 4X south and east of straight lines connecting coordinates 44°20' north latitude, 63°20' west longitude; then 43°00' north latitude, 65°40' west longitude; then 43°00' north latitude, 67°40' west longitude. It is assumed that Canada's catch from this stock in 1977 was its ICNAF quota allocation of 3,600 tons. (Canada's catch from the entire Area 4X cod stock in both inshore and offshore areas was reported as 22,100 metric tons valued at about U.S. $11 million on the basis of 1977 U.S. average ex-vessel prices.) 3^/ The United States share of the allowable catch from this stock is 10 percent of any amount that may be harvested by Canadian vessels based outside the Gulf of St. Lawrence; Canada currently reserves the harvest entirely for vessels based in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. 4^/ For redfish in Area 3-0, the U.S. entitlement would be 600 tons annually; the Canadian entitlement would be the remainder of the allowable catch, i.e., 100 percent less 600 tons. 5^/ No assessment is available of the potential long term annual average harvest of "other groundfish," as defined in the Agreement, from Areas 3 and 4. Various approxi- mations based on historic catch levels could be used. - 120 - NOTES TO TABLE IV (cont'd.) For purposes here the 1975-77 average annual catch figure is listed. Because it is somewhat more conservative than the average annual catch figure during the period 1965-77 (200,000 MT) listed else- where in this statement, it offers a greater margin of safety and potentially a broader range of manage- ment options. 6^/ The Agreement percentage shares for lobster in Subdivision 5Ze are provisionally assumed to be 87.2 percent for the United States and 12.8 percent for Canada, which are the relative shares each country took of the total Subdivision 5Ze lobster catch in 1975-77. Until a maritime boundary is determined there would be nor expansion of either country's directed fishery for lobster in the boundary region unless otherwise agreed in the Commission established under the Agree- ment. After a maritime boundary is established, each country would manage and have exclusive access to lobster on its side of the boundary, unless otherwise mutually agreed. !_/ Percentage share that would prevail at the end of the initial 6-year period the Agreement is in force. 8^/ No assessment is available of the potential long term annual average harvest of "other groundfish," as defined in the Agreement, from Areas 5 and 6. Various approximations based on historic catch levels could be used. For purposes here the 1975-77 average annual catch figure is listed. Because it is somewhat more conservative than the average annual catch figures during the period 1965-77 (70,000 MT) listed elsewhere in this statement, it offers a greater margin of safety and potentially a broader range of management options. - 121 - metric tons (MT) worth about $7.7 million. After ten years, when the U.S. entitlement to Canadian redfish would termi- nate, the annual U.S. share remaining would be 7.9 thousand MT, valued at $4.9 million. In 1978 U.S. fishermen caught only 3.7 thousand MT in the Canadian zone, and in 19 77 only 5.5 thousand MT. Thus, the annual U.S. harvest in the Canadian zone could increase over 1978 levels by almost 12 thousand MT in the first ten years of the Agreement. (See figure 8) . After termination of the U.S. redfish entitle- ment, there would still be a potential gain in annual catch of 4.2 thousand MT over 19 78 levels. (In the absence of an agreement, of course, the United States would not have access to the undisputed Canadian zone.) Canadian fishermen, on the other hand, caught 25.5 thousand MT over their potential share of stocks covered by the Agreement in their own zone in 1978. In the undisputed U.S. zone the potential annual Canadian entitlement share is estimated at 4,1 thousand MT, worth $4.2 mission, excluding transboundary and boundary region stocks. Since Canada's 19 7 8 harvest in the U.S. zone was only about 400 MT , the annual Canadian catch could increase by 3.7 thousand MT under the Agreement, but only in the first ten years. At that time, the Canadian Loligo squid entitlement would terminate, and Canada's share of the Figure 8 POTENTIAL LONG-TERM INCREASE (OR DECREASE) IN AVERAGE ANNUAL HARVEST* DECREASE -100,000 MT L U.S. ZONE STOCKS CANADIAN ZONE STOCKS TRANSBOUNDARY AND BOUNDARY REGION STOCKS It < > V) CO > < (t CQ < OOl p^ INCREASE + 100,000 MT 200,000 MT 1_ ^300,000 MT * Based on entitlement shares of estimated potential long-term sustainable catch (see table), and assuming rebuilding of stocks. 3546 12 79 STATE (RGE) 122 - 123 - potential annual catch would drop to 128 MT ^ worth an esti- mated $70 thousand, less than Canada's 1978 harvest in the U.S. zone. U.S. fish(?rmen, on the other hand, could poten- tially increase their average annual harvest by about 32 thousand MT over 1978 levels. Thus, the United States would trade a potential annual catch of 4.1 thousand MT of fish in the U.S. zone, worth an estimated $4.2 million, for 15.5 thousand MT of Canadian fish potentially worth $7.7 million. After the reciprocal redfish and Loligo entitlements expire the potential annual U.S. harvest of Canadian zone stocks is estimated at 7.95 thousand MT, valued at $4.9 million, while Canada would be entitled to a potential annual catch of 128 MT in the U.S. zone, worth about $70 thousand. Tra nsbou ndary stocks which range significantly into or across the boundary region, comprise the largest portion of the stocks aftecti^d by the Agreement--sl ightly over half the total tonnage, and almost 60 percent of the value of the potential annual long-tc;rm yield for all stocks. U.S. fishermen would be entitled to about 68 percent of the long- term potential transboundary stock harvest, or 424.5 thousand MT annually. The potential value of that share, at 1978 prices is about $200.9 million a year or 61 percent of the value of all transboundary stocks. As effective management is introduced under the Agreement, the U.S. fleet could - 124 potentially increase its annual catch of transboundary stoc'Ks by about 290 thousand MT, more than tripling the 1978 catch level ot 134.6 thousand MT . Canada has traditionally taken between 90 and 95 percent of. its Subarea 5 and 6 catch from the ooundary region, and can continue to do so in the absence of an Agreement. Under the Agreement, Canadian fisnermen would be entitled to a potential annual harvest of 200.5 thousand MT or 32 percent of the total potential transboundary stock yield. The potential value of that share is $126.6 million a yeai or about 39 percent. In 1978 Canadian fishermen took 72.4 thousand MT from transboundary stocks, and so could potentially harvest an additional 128.1 thousand MT a year under the Agreement in the long term. Man agement A uthor i ty Allocation of management authority is illustrated in figure 9. The United States would have primary management authority under the Agreement for all stocks located chiefly in the undisputed U.S. zone. The potential value of these stocks, at 1978 prices, is approximately $59.3 million a year. Likewise, Canada would have primary management authority for all stocks located chiefly in the undisputed Canadian zone, potentially worth about $175.9 million a year . Figure 9 ALLOCATIONS OF PRIMARY MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY BY VALUE OF POTENTIAL HARVEST* ♦Potential annual long-term sustainable catch, at 1978 exvessel prices in U.S. dollars. 3544 12-79 STATE (RGE) 125 - 126 - For transboundary stocks, which r^inge significantly into or across the boundary area, U.S. primary management authority wouL